TR-Dizin İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu / TR Dizin Indexed Publications Collection
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11779/1927
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Review Article Pearl’in Nedensel Modelinin Ampirik Araştırmadaki Rolü(2024) Bılgel, FıratThis paper underscores the necessity of formulating precise research questions that clarify causal relationships rather than simply identifying correlations and highlights the perils of relying solely on regression analysis in tackling complex causal inquiries without causal diagrams or structural causal models. It introduces Judea Pearl's causal epistemology, including causal graphs, structural causal models, and do-calculus as vital tools for estimating causal effects. It extends to the challenges of confounding and collider effects, the application of do-calculus with basic examples from Law & Economics and the advancements in causal discovery methods through constraint-based algorithms. The paper also offers a brief roadmap on best practices for identification and estimation.Article Are inflation expectations irrational in Turkey? Exchange rate pass-through analysis(Journal of Financial Politic & Economic Reviews, 2023) Asfuroglu, Dila; Ertuğrul, Ayşe; Güneş, Gökhan ŞahinAre inflation expectations irrational in Turkey? Exchange rate pass-through analysisThis study investigates the rationality of inflation expectations in Turkey over 2011-2019 via exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) analysis. Relying on the assumption that the inflation rate and inflation expectations are going to change equally if the economic agents form rational expectations, we utilize the vector autoregression model with inflation expectations to quantify the ERPT to inflation and to inflation expectations. The results show that exchange rate shocks do not have the same impact on the inflation rate and inflation expectations over different horizons. In the short term, the inflation rate rises faster than the inflation expectations following unexpected exchange rate swings; however, they move in tandem after six months. With the time-varying analysis, we trace the evolution of the ERPT coefficients to characterize the nature of agents’ expectations. The findings document that the discrepancy between ERPT coefficients is persistent, inclining to chronic irrationality of expectations, with decaying degrees in the longer horizon, rendering adaptive formation of expectations over time.Article Borders of socio-economic development in Türkiye(Türkiye Ekonomi Kurumu Vakfı, 2024) Karahasan, Burhan Can; Can, BurhanTurkish economy is characterized by a dual regional structure. Historically, western regions form the relatively more developed and rich geography of the country. In the meantime, landlocked eastern regions are realizing a period of marginalization pushing majority of these regions toward full isolation from rest of the country. Our knowledge on this dual pattern departs mostly from monetary indicators. In this study, I use the socio-economic development index (SDI) which is first constructed by the State Planning Organization (SPO). The main objective is to use spatial tools for the period of 1963-2017 and to explore the historical evolution of spatial externalities and heterogeneity. This aims to visualize the socio-economic borders of Turkish provinces. While our findings confirm the spatial inertia for the under-developed eastern regions, they also show rising spatial spillovers among the developed western geography. However, this positive impact is geographically bounded by the central part of the country.Article Central Bank Digital Currency in an Emerging Market Economy: Case of the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye(2024) Asfuroğlu, DilaCentral banks have historically been using traditional channels for communication and physical money for transactions, fulfilling the needs of previous millennia, while the evolution of technology, electronic devices, and needs in transactions necessitate the use of modern communication channels, such as X (formerly known as Twitter), as well as modern payment systems, such as central bank digital currencies (CBDC). Hence, this paper aims to unfold where the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT), as an example of emerging markets, stands in informing the public about CBDC. To this end, it conducts an event study on the official X account of CBRT in English over 10.2020-12.2022 by utilizing Nvivo. The findings of the quantitative analysis of the tweets show that CBRT does not regard X as a primary communication channel and mainly shares links to publications from the official websites in X. Also, CBRT tends to adopt a ‘cold-turkey’ informative approach about CBDC with the public rather than ‘gradualism’. Consequently, CBRT should rigorously design a communication strategy that fulfills the needs of the modern economy and start addressing CBDC to raise awareness if a quick transition to digital currency is targeted.