Browsing by Author "Kizilay, Ayse"

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Ensemble-Based Stock Prediction for Retail - XGBoost and LightGBM with Rolling Window Training
(Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 2025) Patel, Jay Nimish; Kizilay, Ayse; Sahin, Zeynep; Sercan, Busra; Toprak, Samet; Cakar, Tuna
Stock prediction in retail settings is a critical challenge that impacts numerous businesses globally, that require precise and timely forecasts to optimize inventory management and enhance customer satisfaction. State-of-the-art approaches for accurate stock prediction leverage machine learning (ML) models, which require large amounts of historical sales data for effective training. Such detailed datasets are often hard to obtain, limiting the performance and scalability of these approaches. In this paper, we propose various strategies to tackle this limitation. Initially, we adopt a transfer-learning approach, utilizing pre-trained models like XGBoost and LightGBM, which are fine-tuned for stock prediction in retail environments. To further boost model performance, we incorporate an ensemble method that combines predictions from both models to improve accuracy and manage outliers. Experiments conducted on an extremely large dataset, comprising millions of retail transactions, highlight the presence of significant outliers. Our models, augmented with ensemble strategies, significantly outperform traditional models in handling these complexities and improving prediction accuracy. © 2025 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
Predicting Customer Churn in Retail Using Machine Learning on Transaction Data
(Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 2025) Bozan M.T.; Gozukara H.; Patel J.; Kizilay A.; Sahin Z.; Tosun B.; Cakar T.; Gozukara, Hamza; Kizilay, Ayse; Patel, Jay; Bozan, Mehmet Talha; Cakar, Tuna; Tosun, Busra; Sahin, Zeynep
Customer churn prediction is critical for businesses to retain customers and reduce revenue loss. This paper presents a retail customer churn prediction study. We preprocess transactional data from a retail dataset comprising approximately 19.7 million transactions involving over 1 million customers. Temporal behavioral features, such as purchase frequency, monetary value, product variety, and promotional engagement metrics, are engineered using a four-month observation window. A Random Forest classifier is trained, utilizing balanced class weighting to address churn class imbalance. The churn label is defined as customers not purchasing in the subsequent six-month period. Our Random Forest model achieves approximately 84% accuracy, 86% precision, 85% recall, and an F1- score of 85%. Additionally, an XGBoost model achieves similar accuracy (≈ 84%) but higher recall (93%) and F1-score (89%), indicating improved churn prediction. The confusion matrix illustrates clear model performance. This study demonstrates that carefully engineered RFM-based features and ensemble learning approaches significantly enhance churn prediction in retail contexts. © 2025 IEEE.