Browsing by Author "Konuk, Hayrettin"

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    Risk Parameter Calculation Using Princpal Component Analysis of Yield Curves: the Case of Borsa İstanbul Fixed Income Market
    (MEF Üniversitesi, Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, 2017) Konuk, Hayrettin; Güntay, Levent
    To enable a trustworthy clearing operation, clearinghouses require conservative margins to avoid the risk of incurring a loss in case one counterparty defaults. When margin requirements for fixed income instruments are calculated, yield curves of each instrument are stressed using their first three principal components. All instruments in an account are then evaluated against each stressed yield curve and the margin requirement is calculated as the difference of the combined value of these instruments calculated with the worst of the stressed yield curves between their combined values calculated with related unstressed curves. The aim of this project is to construct a tool for applying principle component analysis (PCA) on daily zero coupon yield curve of Turkish Treasury Securities. The analysis employs a yield curve panel data set obtained consisting historical zero coupon yield curves. The data set includes interest rates of 60 different maturities varying between overnight and 15 years and 1250 daily observations between December 2010 and December 2015. The result of this analysis provides a method that could be run at the end of each clearing day to determine the major components of the yield curve such as level/height, slope and curvature that describes at least 95% of the variation in interest changes and subject to stress shocks