Yüksek Lisans, Proje Koleksiyonu

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11779/215

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Browsing Yüksek Lisans, Proje Koleksiyonu by Institution Author "Baydoğan, Ufuk"

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    Master Thesis
    Vote Transtition Analysis and Comparison of Turkish Local Elections in 2014 and 2019
    (MEF Üniversitesi, Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, 2019) Baydoğan, Ufuk; Güney, Evren
    Debates around how voters switched their votes relative to previous elections are always the topic after the Election Day. Turkish local election of 2019 was important because of three reasons: first, because it was the first local election after Turkey adapted the new presidential system and the President also participated in the election campaign for his party; second, because İstanbul election, originally run on March 31, was ruled for rerun by Supreme Election Council and the third, because the electoral alliances had significant impact on the results where the votes for The People's Alliance significantly collapsed. This study presents a comparative analysis of 2014 and 2019 official Turkish Local Election Results as well as 2019 Re-Run Election Results of Istanbul to understand the vote transitions. As the outcomes are considered, there are significant changes in the distribution of voting rates between these elections, especially in critical metropolitans. Using the aggregate level vote counts, the vote transition probabilities between the elections are inferred using ecological inference. Proposed clustering approach on vote transition probabilities show that CHP and IYI Party have benefited from forming Nation’s Alliance for most of the cities mainly due to the vote switches from HDP and MHP. For the re-run election case, the slight number of vote difference between the alliances in March has increased significantly. This is mainly because of the contribution of absentees to Nation’s Alliance and around %5 of the People’s Alliance supporters in March who estimated to vote for Nation’s Alliance.