PubMed İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu / PubMed Indexed Publications Collection
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11779/1928
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Browsing PubMed İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu / PubMed Indexed Publications Collection by Institution Author "Bilgel, Fırat"
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Article Citation - WoS: 4Citation - Scopus: 4Effects of Vaccination and the Spatio-Temporal Diffusion of Covid-19 Incidence in Turkey(John Wiley and Sons Inc, 2022) Bilgel, Fırat; Karahasan, Burhan CanThis study assesses the spatio-temporal impact of vaccination efforts on Covid-19 incidence growth in Turkey. Incorporating geographical features of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, we adopt a spatial Susceptible–Infected–Recovered (SIR) model that serves as a guide of our empirical specification. Using provincial weekly panel data, we estimate a dynamic spatial autoregressive (SAR) model to elucidate the short- and the long-run impact of vaccination on Covid-19 incidence growth after controlling for temporal and spatio-temporal diffusion, testing capacity, social distancing behavior and unobserved space-varying confounders. Results show that vaccination growth reduces Covid-19 incidence growth rate directly and indirectly by creating a positive externality over space. The significant association between vaccination and Covid-19 incidence is robust to a host of spatial weight matrix specifications. Conspicuous spatial and temporal diffusion effects of Covid-19 incidence growth were found across all specifications: the former being a severer threat to the containment of the pandemic than the latter.Article Understanding Covid-19 Mobility Through Human Capital: a Unified Causal Framework(Springer, 2023) Bilgel, Fırat; Karahasan, Burhan CanThis paper seeks to identify the causal impact of educational human capital on social distancing behavior at workplace in Turkey using district-level data for the period of April 2020 - February 2021. We adopt a unified causal framework, predicated on domain knowledge, theory-justified constraints anda data-driven causal structure discovery using causal graphs. We answer our causal query by employing machine learning prediction algorithms; instrumental variables in the presence of latent confounding and Heckman's model in the presence of selection bias. Results show that educated regions are able to distance-work and educational human capital is a key factor in reducing workplace mobility, possibly through its impact on employment. This pattern leads to higher workplace mobility for less educated regions and translates into higher Covid-19 infection rates. The future of the pandemic lies in less educated segments of developing countries and calls for public health action to decrease its unequal and pervasive impact.