Are inflation expectations irrational in Turkey? Exchange rate pass-through analysis

Abstract

Are inflation expectations irrational in Turkey? Exchange rate pass-through analysisThis study investigates the rationality of inflation expectations in Turkey over 2011-2019 via exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) analysis. Relying on the assumption that the inflation rate and inflation expectations are going to change equally if the economic agents form rational expectations, we utilize the vector autoregression model with inflation expectations to quantify the ERPT to inflation and to inflation expectations. The results show that exchange rate shocks do not have the same impact on the inflation rate and inflation expectations over different horizons. In the short term, the inflation rate rises faster than the inflation expectations following unexpected exchange rate swings; however, they move in tandem after six months. With the time-varying analysis, we trace the evolution of the ERPT coefficients to characterize the nature of agents’ expectations. The findings document that the discrepancy between ERPT coefficients is persistent, inclining to chronic irrationality of expectations, with decaying degrees in the longer horizon, rendering adaptive formation of expectations over time.