Turkey and Nuclear Weapons: Can This Be Real

Abstract

Since the dramatic revelations of Iran’s illicit nuclear activities in 2002,commentators have speculated that Turkey will follow suit and seek toacquire nuclear-weapon capabilities to balance Iran and meet the potentialchallenges of a proliferation cascade in the Middle East. Academics andpundits have scrutinized Turkey’s interest in nuclear energy projects with aview to “discovering the real motives” behind its past and current initiatives.What is the likelihood of Turkey “going nuclear” in the years ahead despiteits outstanding performance under the nuclear nonproliferation regime?Needless to say, this will be a speculative, intellectual exercise,which will be carried out with a view to addressing a number of issues thatare most frequently raised inside and outside of Turkey, such as who wouldbe in charge of a Turkish nuclear-weapon development project, what wouldbe the strategy for evading Turkey’s commitments under the nuclear nonproliferation regime, which capabilities and technologies would be acquiredand/or indigenously developed for becoming self-sufficient in the longterm, who would be the international partners, and the like.