Probabilistic seismic microzonation for ground shaking intensity, a case study in Türkiye

Abstract

The purpose of seismic microzonation is to estimate earthquake characteristics on the ground surface based on a probabilistic approach to mitigate earthquake damage in the foreseeable future for the new buildings, as well as for the existing building stock. The probabilistic analysis and related results are very important from an engineering perspective since the nature of the problem can only be dealt with in a probabilistic manner. The uncertainties associated with these analyses may be large due to the uncertainties in source characteristics, soil profile, soil properties, and building inventory. At this stage, the probability distribution of the related earthquake parameters on the ground surface may be determined based on hazard-compatible input acceleration-time histories, site profiles, and dynamic soil properties. One option, the variability in earthquake source and path effects may be considered using a large number of acceleration records compatible with the site-dependent earthquake hazard. Likewise, large numbers of soil profiles may be used to account for the site-condition variability. The seismic microzonation methodology is proposed based on the probabilistic assessment of these factors involved in site response analysis. The second important issue in seismic microzonation procedure is the selection of microzonation parameters. The purpose being mitigation of structural damage, it is possible to adopt earthquake parameters like cumulative average velocity (CAV) or Housner intensity (HI) that was observed to have better correlation with building damage after earthquakes. A seismic microzonation procedure will be developed with respect to ground shaking intensity considering probabilistic values of the cumulative average velocity (CAV) or Housner intensity (HI).