Browsing by Author "Ertuğrul, Seyit"

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Customer transaction predictive modeling via machine learning algorithms
(MEF Üniversitesi, 2023) Ertuğrul, Seyit; Çakar, Tuna
The main purpose of this study is to determine the behavior and characteristics of the customers of a company that is active in the factoring sector, and accordingly, to capture measurable parameters with exploratory data analysis based on the historical data of the customers, and then to perform predictive models for the target. A hit rate of around 80% was achieved in SVM and Extra Trees models, which are classification model algorithms. In this way, it is aimed to directly contribute to the transaction volume on a business basis by acting in a more effective, efficient and correct approach after approving the check that shows high potential, that is, the customers who are likely to accept it after the offer is made as a business.
Citation - Scopus: 5
High-Performance Real-Time Data Processing: Managing Data Using Debezium, Postgres, Kafka, and Redis
(IEEE, 2023) Çakar, Tuna; Ertuğrul, Seyit; Arslan, Şuayip; Sayar, Alperen; Akçay, Ahmet
This research focuses on monitoring and transferring logs of operations performed on a relational database, specifically PostgreSQL, in real-time using an event-driven approach. The logs generated from database operations are transferred using Apache Kafka, an open-source message queuing system, and Debezium running on Kafka, to Redis, a non-relational (No-SQL) key-value database. Time-consuming query operations and read operations are performed on Redis, which operates on memory (in-memory), instead of on the primary database, PostgreSQL. This approach has significantly improved query execution performance, data processing time, and backend service performance. The study showcases the practical application of an event-driven approach using Debezium, Kafka, Redis, and relational databases for real-time data processing and querying.
Performing Disc Personal Inventory Analysis in Job Postings Using Artificial Intelligence Methods
(Data science and applications, 2023) Sayar, Alperen; Yıldız, Ahmet; Çakar, Tuna; Şengüloğlu, Dilara; Ertuğrul, Seyit
One of the application fields of DISC selfevaluation analysis was introduced to predict people's performance and orientation in their working life. Each letter in the word DISC represents an essential personal characteristic, dividing the profiles of people in business life into four essential parts. In the current study, DISC analysis is conducted on job postings to match the person with the job posting. The current study was based on the analysis of 3 different datasets with job postings in English, Turkish and Romanian prepared by using web scraping methods and then labeled in accordance with DISC criteria. Several different machine learning algorithms have been performed on the DISC analysis outputs, and they reached the best results with accuracy values of around over 96% on the English dataset, around over 95% on the Turkish dataset, and around over 96% on the Romanian dataset, for both D, I, S, C models.
Citation - WoS: 1
Citation - Scopus: 1
Understanding the Psychological and Financial Correlates for Consumer Credit Use;
(Sosyoekonomi Society, 2024) Ertuğrul, Seyit; Sayar, Alperen; Şahin, Türkay; Çakar,Tuna
This study investigated the behavioural and cognitive predictors of consumer credit usage to develop a behavioural credit risk assessment procedure for a factoring company. Participants completed surveys measuring personality traits, self-esteem, material and monetary values, compulsive and impulsive buying tendencies, self-control, and impulsiveness. Financial surveys also assessed financial literacy and knowledge of financial concepts. The results indicated that extraversion, conscientiousness, emotional stability, and experiential self-control were significant predictors of consumer credit usage. These findings suggest that a finance company can use these personality traits and financial characteristics to develop a more accurate and effective credit risk assessment procedure, such as psychometric tests. © 2024, Sosyoekonomi Society. All rights reserved.
Citation - Scopus: 3
Segmentation for Factoring Customers: Using Unsupervised Machine Learning Algorithms
(IEEE, 2023) Yalçuva, Berat; Akçay, Ahmet; Ertuğrul, Seyit; Çakar, Tuna; Sayar, Alperen; Ayyıldız, Nur Seher
Nowadays the fact that technology facilitates data collection is an important opportunity, as well as making the management of all this data difficult and makes no sense unless it is well processed. This stored data is extremely important, and companies use data provided by their customers. Catching the needs of the customer profiles of the changing world is now a necessity and takes the first place for companies. With the increase in the amount of stored data over time, it has become difficult to establish a relationship between the data and to separate them from each other. At this point, machine learning methods have become more involved in our lives. In this study, what segmentation is and its change over the years are mentioned. It has been mentioned which machine learning techniques will be useful in data selection. Then, possible machine learning methods are shown in real life segmentation problem by using the domestic factoring company’s customer check data. Since this study aims to group unlabeled data, unsupervised learning techniques are emphasized. Among these methods, Hierarchical Clustering, DBSCAN, Gaussian Mixture Modeling methods, Fuzzy c- Means were used as well as the most popular K-Means algorithm. When the clustering results were examined, the optimal number of clusters was calculated very high with GMM, DBSCAN could not assign clusters, and Hierarchical clustering could not produce expected results. It was observed that the best results were obtained with the K-Means and Fuzzy c - Means algorithms.
Transaction Volume Estimation in Financial Markets With Lstm
(IEEE, 2023) Bozkan, Tunahan; Çakar, Tuna; Ertuğrul, Seyit; Sayar, Alperen; Akçay, Ahmet
In this study, it was aimed to determine the transaction volume that will be encountered in the future (hourly) in the factoring sector, and then to take financial and operational action early. For the study, the LSTM model, which is a kind of recurrent neural network (RNN) that can capture long and short-term dependencies, was applied by using data-driven approaches to estimate the check amounts of hourly transactions. As a result of the results, it was aimed to increase the operational efficiency in a broad scope by allowing the factoring company to determine the loan amounts to be obtained from banks in the most optimal way, and then to take early action within the scope of both the workforce and business management of the financial resource allocation management process and operational activities. MAPE score was used as a measure of error in the time series analysis model. MAPE scores were found as %5.05 for 30 days, %4.18 for 10 days, %3.47 for 5 days, %3.09 for 3 days and %1.83 for 1 day. According to the MAPE scores calculated for different days, the enterprise will be able to decide on the loan to be drawn from banks both in terms of time and amount, and the necessary action will be taken.
Citation - WoS: 2
Citation - Scopus: 4
Unlocking the Neural Mechanisms of Consumer Loan Evaluations: an Fnirs and Mlbased Consumer Neuroscience Study
(2024) Girişken, Yener; Son, Semen; Demircioğlu, Esin Tuna; Filiz, Gözde; Çakar, Tuna; Ertuğrul, Seyit; Sayar, Alperen
This study conducted a comprehensive exploration of the neurocognitive processes underlying consumer credit decision-making using cutting-edge techniques from neuroscience and artificial intelligence (AI). Employing functional Near-Infrared Spectroscopy (fNIRS), the research examines the hemodynamic responses of participants while evaluating diverse credit offers. The study integrates fNIRS data with advanced AI algorithms, specifically Extreme Gradient Boosting, CatBoost, and Light Gradient Boosted Machine, to predict participants' credit decisions based on prefrontal cortex (PFC) activation patterns. Findings reveal distinctive PFC regions correlating with credit behaviors, including the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (dlPFC) associated with strategic decision-making, the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) linked to emotional valuations, and the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) reflecting brand integration and reward processing. Notably, the right dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (dmPFC) and the right vmPFC contribute to positive credit preferences. This interdisciplinary approach bridges neuroscience and finance, offering unprecedented insights into the neural mechanisms guiding financial choices. The study's predictive model holds promise for refining financial services and illuminating human financial behavior within the burgeoning field of neurofinance. The work exemplifies the potential of interdisciplinary research to enhance our understanding of human financial decision-making.
Prediction of Loan Decisions With Optical Neuroimaging (fnirs) and Machine Learning
(IEEE, 2023) Girişken, Yener; Son Turan, Semen; Çakar, Tuna; Ertuğrul, Seyit; Sayar, Alperen
The successful applications of neuroscientific methods and artificial learning approaches have increased in applied fields such as economics, marketing, and finance in the last decade. In this study, a prediction model was developed using the output of optical neuroimaging (fNIRS) measurements from the prefrontal brain regions while 40 participants made decisions for 35 credit offers. The aim was to predict participants' responses to credit offers using artificial learning methods based on four metrics obtained over time from the optical neuroimaging system. The findings of the study indicate that the first 6 seconds (prior to the response entry) are particularly critical. While the performance rate in the developed prediction models is found to be higher, especially in tree-based algorithms, this paper includes a performance comparison of 5 models specifically.
Citation - Scopus: 3
Grafraud: Fraud Detection Using Graph Databases and Neural Networks
(IEEE, 2023) Raina, Ajeet Singh; Çakar, Tuna; Ertuğrul, Seyit; Arslan, Şuayip; Sayar, Alperen
The issue of fraud has become a significant concern for many companies, particularly in the finance sector, but the traditional methods of detecting fraud are no longer adequate. Innovative technologies are necessary to identify complex fraudulent activities, and RedisGraph, a high-performance graph database, may offer a solution. With the assistance of neural networks, RedisGraph can accurately and efficiently detect fraudulent transactions in vast and intricate environments. Companies typically use a combination of Python and Oracle Databases to design fraud detection systems. which provide robust data management and real time AI processing capabilities. These technologies allow to create fraud detection systems that can determine fraudulent activities in real-time. But according to advancements of fraud methods only using of these systems not efficient nowadays. This article presents a proof of concept based on an essential use case of RedisGraph-powered neural networks in detecting financial fraud. It demonstrates the value of carefully employing Python and Oracle Database to construct and deploy real-time systems that can efficiently detect fraudulent activities.