This study attempts to identify the causal and/or direct effects of sociocultural determinants of infant mortality in Turkey within a regional context using causal graph analysis and global and local spatial models. The conceptual framework, combined with the data, shows that fertility and consanguinity have direct effects on infant mortality rates, and that female illiteracy, as a proxy for maternal education, is the main cause of rising infant mortality even in the presence of latent confounding. The surface of estimates further shows that the local effects of female illiteracy and consanguinity are non-stationary across space, calling for location-specific policies.
