Ekonomi Bölümü Koleksiyonu

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11779/1936

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Are inflation expectations irrational in Turkey? Exchange rate pass-through analysis
(Journal of Financial Politic & Economic Reviews, 2023) Asfuroglu, Dila; Ertuğrul, Ayşe; Güneş, Gökhan Şahin
Are inflation expectations irrational in Turkey? Exchange rate pass-through analysisThis study investigates the rationality of inflation expectations in Turkey over 2011-2019 via exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) analysis. Relying on the assumption that the inflation rate and inflation expectations are going to change equally if the economic agents form rational expectations, we utilize the vector autoregression model with inflation expectations to quantify the ERPT to inflation and to inflation expectations. The results show that exchange rate shocks do not have the same impact on the inflation rate and inflation expectations over different horizons. In the short term, the inflation rate rises faster than the inflation expectations following unexpected exchange rate swings; however, they move in tandem after six months. With the time-varying analysis, we trace the evolution of the ERPT coefficients to characterize the nature of agents’ expectations. The findings document that the discrepancy between ERPT coefficients is persistent, inclining to chronic irrationality of expectations, with decaying degrees in the longer horizon, rendering adaptive formation of expectations over time.
Unemployment Polarisation and Club Convergence in Türkiye
(Wiley, 2025) Karahasan, Burhan Can
Turkish economy has undergone massive transformation during the 2000s. Annual economic growth reached a peak of 10% in the early 2000s. However, the side effects of global financial crises and the internal macroeconomic imbalances shift the growth trajectory of T & uuml;rkiye into a new path of unstable economic growth. While macroeconomic consequences are densely discussed we know less about the adjustment of local labour markets. To fill this gap, we examine the club formation of Turkish regions by analysing their unemployment trajectories during the post 2000s. Our findings show that despite rapid economic growth Turkish regions get extremely polarised and form distinct convergence clubs. Remarkably polarisation is higher for the female population. Geographically, polarisation is in the form of an isolation for the least developed south-eastern regions and some of the developed urbanised western regions. Additionally, our robustness exercises indicate higher polarisation after 2013 as Turkish economic growth starts to become more volatile and less sustainable. Finally, our spatial extensions show that impact of spatial proximity has significant influence on the accurate extent of unemployment deprivation.
Populism and Income Inequality: Is Income Inequality in Türkiye a Political Choice?
(Istanbul Univ, 2024) Asfuroğlu, Dila
The argument that national inequalities are political and thereby driven by political decisions implies that income distribution is not merely an economic phenomenon but also a political one. Hence, this study explores the impact of populist governance on income inequality in T & uuml;rkiye. In doing so, this study addresses whether income inequality in T & uuml;rkiye is a political choice, drawing on economic, social, and political data over the years 20082022. According to the results of the quantitative analysis, the share of income for the working class has fallen, the income gap between the lowest and highest deciles of the working class has narrowed, and the potential for fiscal interventions to reduce income inequality is not realised. In return, the income inequality that existed in 2008 has persisted at the same magnitude over the years. In other words, even if income inequality is not an explicit political choice, the populist governance in T & uuml;rkiye between 2008 and 2022 has chosen not to contribute to the solution to this prevailing inequality.
Borders of socio-economic development in Türkiye
(Türkiye Ekonomi Kurumu Vakfı, 2024) Karahasan, Burhan Can; Karahasan, Burhan Can
Turkish economy is characterized by a dual regional structure. Historically, western regions form the relatively more developed and rich geography of the country. In the meantime, landlocked eastern regions are realizing a period of marginalization pushing majority of these regions toward full isolation from rest of the country. Our knowledge on this dual pattern departs mostly from monetary indicators. In this study, I use the socio-economic development index (SDI) which is first constructed by the State Planning Organization (SPO). The main objective is to use spatial tools for the period of 1963-2017 and to explore the historical evolution of spatial externalities and heterogeneity. This aims to visualize the socio-economic borders of Turkish provinces. While our findings confirm the spatial inertia for the under-developed eastern regions, they also show rising spatial spillovers among the developed western geography. However, this positive impact is geographically bounded by the central part of the country.
The role of pearl’s causal framework in empirical research
(Türkiye Ekonomi Kurumu Vakfı, 2024) Bilgel, Fırat
This paper underscores the necessity of formulating precise research questions that clarify causal relationships rather than simply identifying correlations and highlights the perils of relying solely on regression analysis in tackling complex causal inquiries without causal diagrams or structural causal models. It introduces Judea Pearl's causal epistemology, including causal graphs, structural causal models, and do-calculus as vital tools for estimating causal effects. It extends to the challenges of confounding and collider effects, the application of do-calculus with basic examples from Law & Economics and the advancements in causal discovery methods through constraint-based algorithms. The paper also offers a brief roadmap on best practices for identification and estimation.
Türkiye'nin Döngüsel Ekonomiye Geçiş Performansı Üzerine Karşılaştırmalı Bir Analiz
(2024) Asfuroğlu, Dila
Çalışma, Türkiye’nin döngüsel ekonomiye geçiş performansını, seçili gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkelerle karşılaştırma yaparak ortaya koymayı amaçlamaktadır. Nicel analiz, Eurostat ve OECD.Stat veri bankalarının döngüsel ekonomiyi ölçmek için belirlediği göstergeler ışığında, verilerin var olduğu 2000-2022 yılları arasında, gelişmiş ülkelerden Almanya, İsveç ve İngiltere; gelişmekte olan ülkelerden Macaristan, Bulgaristan, Arnavutluk ve Sırbistan örnekleriyle yapılmıştır. Sonuçlara göre Türkiye, kaynak verimliliğini yıllar içinde artmış olup en etkili artış, 2017 yılından itibaren gözlemlenmiştir. Yurtiçi malzeme tüketiminin ve malzeme ayak izinin düşük seyretmesi talep ve tüketimin genel anlamda düşük olmasına işaret etmektedir. Kişi başına kentsel atık düşerken kişi başı toplam atığının artması, Türkiye’nin hane bazında atık üretiminin düşük, ancak kişi bazında yüksek olduğunu göstermektedir. Atıkların işlenmesinde en çok başvurulan yol uzun yıllar imha iken 2016 yılından itibaren geri kazanım hız kazanmıştır. Son beş yıla dair verinin bulunduğu kentsel atığın geri dönüşüm oranının artması olumlu bir gelişmedir. İthalat bağımlılığı, gelişmiş ülkelere göre düşük seviyelerde olmasına rağmen yıllar içinde düşmeyip artmıştır. Son yıllarda, tüm hammaddelerin bağımlılığında düşüş yaşanırken metal cevherler ve fosil enerjideki bağımlılık çok yüksek seyretmiştir. Son olarak, sera gazı emisyonu yıllar içinde ciddi şekilde artarak döngüsel ekonomiye geçişte Türkiye’nin en kötü performans göstergesi olmuştur. Yazında çoğunlukla Avrupa Birliği (AB) ülkeleri konu alınıp Türkiye ile alakalı çalışmalar daha çok teorik çerçeveyi oluşturmak üzerine olduğundan bu çalışma, yazındaki eksikliği gidermektedir. Ülke karşılaştırmaları vasıtasıyla, AB’ye aday ülke olan Türkiye’nin, AB’nin döngüsel ekonomi hedeflerinde, döngüsel ekonomi ve ilgili politikaları benimsemede ilerleme kaydedip kaydetmediğini gözler önüne sermekte ve politika yapıcılara, Türkiye’nin döngüsel ekonomi performansını geliştirebilmesi için önerilerde bulunmaktadır.
Citation - WoS: 2
Citation - Scopus: 2
Institutional Quality and Geography of Discontent in the Eu
(John Wiley and Sons Inc, 2023) Pınar, Mehmet; Karahasan, Burhan Can
There has been a significant rise in anti-establishment votes in the European Union (EU). The decline in socio-economic outcomes and migration played an important role in understanding the rising discontent. However, none of the existing studies analysed the effect of socio-economic factors in different institutional settings. Our findings confirm that institutional quality is of paramount importance in explaining the recent rise in populism in the EU, as institutionally developed EU regions are less opposed to EU integration. Remarkably, the effects of socio-economic factors on populist votes vary in different institutional settings. The findings highlight that institutional improvements are vital for the EU perception of less developed and socio-economically isolated EU regions.
Understanding Covid-19 Mobility Through Human Capital: a Unified Causal Framework
(Springer, 2023) Bilgel, Fırat; Karahasan, Burhan Can
This paper seeks to identify the causal impact of educational human capital on social distancing behavior at workplace in Turkey using district-level data for the period of April 2020 - February 2021. We adopt a unified causal framework, predicated on domain knowledge, theory-justified constraints anda data-driven causal structure discovery using causal graphs. We answer our causal query by employing machine learning prediction algorithms; instrumental variables in the presence of latent confounding and Heckman's model in the presence of selection bias. Results show that educated regions are able to distance-work and educational human capital is a key factor in reducing workplace mobility, possibly through its impact on employment. This pattern leads to higher workplace mobility for less educated regions and translates into higher Covid-19 infection rates. The future of the pandemic lies in less educated segments of developing countries and calls for public health action to decrease its unequal and pervasive impact.
Citation - WoS: 2
Citation - Scopus: 2
Effects of Covid-19 Lockdowns on Social Distancing in Turkey
(Oxford University Press, 2022) Bilgel, Fırat
This paper elucidates the causal effect of lockdowns on social distancing behaviour in Turkey by adopting an augmented synthetic control and a factor-augmented model approach for imputing counterfactuals. By constructing a synthetic control group that reproduces pre-lockdown trajectory of mobility of the treated provinces and that accommodates staggered adoption, the difference between the counterfactual and actual mobility of treated provinces is assessed in the post-lockdown period. The analysis shows that in the short run following the onset of lockdowns, outdoor mobility would have been about 17–53 percentage points higher on average in the absence of lockdowns, depending on social distancing measure. However, residential mobility would have been about 12 percentage points lower in the absence of lockdowns. The findings are corroborated using interactive fixed effects and matrix completion counterfactuals that accommodate staggered adoption and treatment reversals.
Citation - WoS: 3
Citation - Scopus: 3
Effects of Vaccination and the Spatio-Temporal Diffusion of Covid-19 Incidence in Turkey
(John Wiley and Sons Inc, 2022) Bilgel, Fırat; Karahasan, Burhan Can
This study assesses the spatio-temporal impact of vaccination efforts on Covid-19 incidence growth in Turkey. Incorporating geographical features of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, we adopt a spatial Susceptible–Infected–Recovered (SIR) model that serves as a guide of our empirical specification. Using provincial weekly panel data, we estimate a dynamic spatial autoregressive (SAR) model to elucidate the short- and the long-run impact of vaccination on Covid-19 incidence growth after controlling for temporal and spatio-temporal diffusion, testing capacity, social distancing behavior and unobserved space-varying confounders. Results show that vaccination growth reduces Covid-19 incidence growth rate directly and indirectly by creating a positive externality over space. The significant association between vaccination and Covid-19 incidence is robust to a host of spatial weight matrix specifications. Conspicuous spatial and temporal diffusion effects of Covid-19 incidence growth were found across all specifications: the former being a severer threat to the containment of the pandemic than the latter.
Citation - Scopus: 1
New Money: Central Bank Digital Currencies
(Peter Lang AG, 2019) Karamollaoğlu, Nazlı; Tuncay, Berna
Payment systems have been evolving along with technological advancements in the last couple decades. The introduction of different forms of electronic banking, the advance of Internet banking services, and advances in mobile phone and mobile payment technology have reduced the use of physical currency. Additionally, the first mover cryptocurrencies, bitcoin and its various alternatives (e.g., Ether, Litecoin), have been expanding their footprints, despite the volatility of their prices and the issues with their capability. These developments pose both opportunities and threats for Central Banks, particularly in the formulation of monetary policy and regulation of payment systems. Increased adoption of cryptocurrencies for payment transactions could undermine central banks' monetary policy missions as their policy power over the money in circulation would weaken. Weakened monetary policy control on the central bank side would risk financial stability. On the other hand, cryptocurrencies may also have positive impacts on the economy through various channels such as cost and time driven payment market efficiencies, financial inclusion, cashless society, and smaller informal sector. A central bank digital currency (CBDC) may have various characteristics related to its store of value, availability, settlement time, wallet and transaction limits, extent of use, being interest bearing or not and level of anonymity. While each characteristic has its own pros and cons, decisions on the CBDC characteristics need to be made by taking into account the country's circumstances, priorities, and ultimate policy objectives. © Peter Lang GmbH Internationaler Verlag der Wissenschaften Berlin 2019. All rights reserved.
Classifying the European Football Leagues by Using Balance-Performance Matrix
(Pamukkale University, 2021) Özaydın, Selçuk Mustafa
European football has transformed over the last two decades both financially and athletically. Although the aggregate revenue generated by the European football increases, some leagues grew richer than the others. The inequality in the distribution of revenue caused the talents to accumulate in the Big 5 leagues and left the others with no chance to compete. Especially after the introduction of Financial Fair Play, teams from other leagues became in desperate need of transfer income which accelerated the accumulation of talent. This paper proposes a matrix, the Balance-Performance Matrix, for classifying leagues with respect to their transfer balance and sportive performance. As the results of the matrix illustrate, some leagues indeed became suppliers for the Big 5 and they have lost their competitive edge whereas some are still competing despite losing their best talents.
Citation - WoS: 5
Citation - Scopus: 7
Arbitrageur Behavior in Sentiment-Driven Asset-Pricing
(World Scientific Publishing, 2021) Kılıç, Erdem; Oğuzhan, Göksel
This study aims to model arbitrageur behavior in a sentiment-driven capital asset-pricing model under the premise of reflecting a more detailed decomposition of investor types in the equity markets. We explore the behavior and the impact of arbitrageur behavior, particularly, on pricing and on key financial ratios. We observe that the prevalence of the arbitrageur counteracts the effects of unsophisticated investors, resulting in a lower volatility of the price–dividend ratio, lower predictive power of changes in consumption for future price changes and lower equity premium. Thus, the results of our research allow us to conjecture that the extrapolation bias in the prices is lowered.
Citation - Scopus: 3
The Impact of Slavia Praha’s Takeover on Czech Football
(Masaryk University, 2021) Özaydın, Selçuk
Foreign ownership in European football has been rapidly increasing especially in the last two decades. Although the main interest for the foreign investors are the teams of major leagues such as English Premier League, Spanish La Liga or Italian Serie A, there are some occasional surprises. One of the surprises is the oldest football team in Czech football, SK Slavia Praha This study investigates the impact of Slavia’s takeover on Czech First Division. First, a stochastic frontier analysis is conducted and efficiency scores are estimated. The results indicate that Slavia’s athletic efficiency has improved significantly after the takeover. Later, the transfer activity in the league is investigated and concluded that it has increased greatly thanks to Slavia’s additional funds allocated to transfers. Finally, the overall competitive balance in the league improved after the takeover despite Slavia’s dominance in the league after the takeover. © 2021 Masaryk University. All rights reserved.
Citation - WoS: 1
Citation - Scopus: 1
Great Recession and News Shocks: Evidence Based on an Estimated Dsge Model
(Springer, 2021) Nebioğlu, Deniz
This paper examines whether productivity news shocks were among the drivers of the Great Recession. To do this, the Smets and Wouters (Am Econ Rev 97(3):586–606, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.97.3.586) model is extended by a generalized preference specification which allows for scaling wealth effects on the labor supply. The resulting model is estimated using Bayesian methods which draw upon the US data from the period 1965Q2 to 2014Q3. There are four main results: (i) Estimation of the model is inconclusive regarding the degree of wealth elasticity of the labor supply. As a result, two complementary versions of the model prevail, each of which has differing implications for the transmission and the quantitative importance of exogenous shocks. (ii) When the degree of wealth elasticity of the labor supply is low, news shocks replace risk premium shocks, suggesting that news shocks are one possible reason for fluctuations in US business cycles. (iii) When the Great Recession period is analyzed through the lenses of the two complementary versions of the model, two explanations emerge as potential reasons behind the deepening of the crisis: worsening credit conditions as well as the collapse of over-optimistic expectations regarding future productivity. (iv) For both model specifications, general developments in productivity are estimated to be positive. Therefore, productivity slowdown is not considered to be among the reasons for the emergence or persistence of the Great Recession.
Fiyat Hareketleri
(Astana Yayınları, 2021) Kılıç, Erdem
Bir piyasa ekonomisinde fiyat kavramı büyük bir öneme sahiptir. Piyasada mevcut olan bütün mal ve hizmetler fiyatları ile değerlendirilip işlem görmektelerdir. Belirlenmiş olan fiyata göre alım satım miktarı gerçekleşmektedir. Serbest piyasa ekonomisinde, fiyat düzeyi bir gösterge olarak üretim maliyetini,arz-talep dengesini, piyasadaki üretim miktarını ve spekülatif eğilimleri yansıtır. Piyasalardaki arz ve talep arasındaki koordinasyonu sağlayan unsur fiyat mekanizmasıdır. Adam Smith’in tabiri ile piyasalar ‘görünmez bir el tarafından’ yönlendirilmektedir. Bu görünmez elin işlevselliği fiyat mekanizmasının ne ölçüde etkin çalıştığı ile ölçülebilir.
Citation - WoS: 21
Citation - Scopus: 24
Prevalence of Mastocytosis and Hymenoptera Venom Allergy in the United States
(2021) Volertas, Sofija; Akın, Cem; Khokhar, Dilawar; Schuler, Charles F; Chen, Lu; Yüce, Huseyin; Montejo, Jenny M; Başer, Onur
Background : Mastocytosis is a risk factor for hymenoptera venom anaphylaxis (HVA). Current guidelines recommend measuring tryptase in HVA patients and that those with mastocytosis pursue lifelong venom immunotherapy (VIT). Available data on HVA and mastocytosis largely derives from European single-center studies and the prevalence of HVA with and without mastocytosis in the United States (US) is unknown.Objective : We sought to determine the prevalence of HVA and mastocytosis in the US using an insurance claims database and evaluate the impact of mastocytosis on VIT in HVA patients in a US cohort. Methods :The IBM Watson Database, consisting of insurance claims from approximately 27 million US patients in 2018, was queried to identify patients with HVA and/or mastocytosis. Further, a retrospective study of 161 patients undergoing VIT between 2015 – 2018 at the University of Michigan (U-M) was conducted. Results :In the IBM Watson Database, the prevalence of HVA was 167 per 100,000 (0.167%) and the prevalence of mastocytosis 10 per 100,000 (0.010%) overall and 97 per 100,000 (0.097%) among those with HVA. Mastocytosis showed a 9.7-fold increase among HVA patients versus the general population. In the U-M cohort, 2.6% of VIT patients had mastocytosis. Tryptase level did not correlate with venom reaction severity but was higher in patients with systemic VIT reactions. Conclusions :We observed a lower US HVA prevalence than previously reported. Mastocytosis was more common in US HVA patients, though at lower rates than previously reported. In VIT patients there was no correlation between tryptase level and reaction severity. Key words :Tryptasevenom allergyvenom immunotherapyanaphylaxismastocytosismast cell activation syndromemast cell disease Abbreviations Hymenoptera venom allergyHVAUnited StatesUSVenom immunotherapyVITMast Cell DiseaseMCDAmerican Academy of Allergy, Asthma, and Immunology
Citation - WoS: 4
Citation - Scopus: 4
Economic Geography and Human Capital Accumulation in Turkey: Evidence From Micro-Data
(Routledge, 2021) Karahasan, Burhan Can; Bilgel, Fırat
This study examines the impact of market access on human capital accumulation in Turkey. Using individual-level data, the analysis explores the background of human capital accumulation, combining market accessibility, wages and human capital development. Upon the treatment of wages as an endogenous covariate of interest and overtime work as an exogenous source of variation, we find evidence that the impact of market access on human capital development vanishes in ways not predicted by the augmented New Economic Geography set-up for human capital accumulation. Findings confirm that economic policies may be effective in reducing regional variation in human capital endowments.
Citation - WoS: 44
Citation - Scopus: 67
Adoption and Use of Learning Management Systems in Education: the Role of Playfulness and Self-Management
(MDPI [Commercial Publisher], 2021) Akküçük, Ulaş; Balkaya, Selen
This article investigates the factors affecting primary and secondary education teachers' behavioral intention to adopt learning management systems (LMSs). Information technology (IT) innovations have the power to change the way we work, educate, learn, and basically the way we live. The effect of IT innovations on education makes it critical to understand the current usage situation of LMSs and the factors affecting their adoption by teachers. The unified theory of acceptance and use of technology (UTAUT) was extended with factors from education and game-based learning literature. In order to see the effect of individual- and organizational-level characteristics, multi-group structural equation modeling (SEM) analysis was conducted and discrepancies in relationships were reported. Evaluation of users and non-users and teachers of different fields were also compared to each other. The findings of this study not only contribute to theory through the development and testing of a thorough model relating technology features and individual characteristics to behavioral intention to use, but also offer strong implications for practitioners who would like to increase LMS usage and create a more effective learning environment.
Citation - WoS: 10
Citation - Scopus: 11
The Topography and Sources of Multidimensional Poverty in Turkey
(Springer, 2021) Karahasan, Burhan Can; Bilgel, Fırat
Economic inequality and poverty have been extensively analyzed in monetary terms. However, other aspects of poverty, such as education, health, environment and standards of living are important factors, essential for human well-being and capabilities. Using a host of non-monetary aspects of poverty, this paper sheds light on the geographical distribution of multidimensional poverty in Turkey. Results from survey data highlight that the regional distribution non-monetary dimensions of poverty is conspicuously different than that of relative monetary poverty in Turkey. Unlike the relative monetary poverty rate, multidimensional poverty measurement reflects the regional underdevelopment problem of Turkey. On the contrary, once monetary poverty is considered in absolute terms, multidimensional and absolute monetary poverty have a similar geographical pattern. Moreover, the decomposition analyses point out that females, old disabled and socially excluded individuals suffer the most from multidimensional poverty. Our combined results show that the isolated eastern regions realize the highest poverty and deprivation at each decomposition level.

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