Ekonomi Bölümü Koleksiyonu

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11779/1936

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Citation - WoS: 17
Citation - Scopus: 19
Oil Prices and Economic Activity in Brics and G7 Countries
(Springer, 2019) Kılıç, Erdem; Çankaya, Serkan
The effect of oil prices on countries’ economic activity has been the center of attention for decades. The empirical link between oil prices and economic activity has been steadily investigated during this time period but the measured outcomes have revealed mixed results and been inconsistent. This study examines the effect of oil prices on economic activity for Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) and Group of Seven (G7) countries in both short-run and long-run relationships by estimating a maximum likelihood structural vector autoregression model. The model shows that a positive shock to oil prices tends to affect the monetary aggregate in Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, and Russia. The effect on interest rate spread is most significant in India and Russia. Impulse response functions display almost no effect on the gross domestic product in the US and China. A positive response on the consumer price index is observed mostly for developed countries. The response of real exchange rate reveals a positive effect on all countries in varying degrees, with the exception of the US and South Africa. Finally, Granger causality tests were conducted with proper allowance for the non-stationarity of the data. The findings illustrate that the Russian economy is among the economies that are most significantly affected by oil price fluctuations for almost all the selected variables. The models also reveal that the effect of oil price shocks on the US’s and China’s economic activities is only limited to the effect on real exchange rates. Other variables show no or limited reactions to oil prices. We also used the Markov switching maximum likelihood vector autoregression models, which reveals similar results.
Citation - WoS: 3
Citation - Scopus: 3
Patterns of International Normalized Ratio Values Among New Warfarin Patients With Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation
(2016) Schein, Jeffrey R; Wang, Li; Nelson, Winnie W.; Damaraju, Chandrasekharrao, V; Milentijevic, Dejan; Başer, Onur
Limited information exists regarding the relationship between international normalized ratio (INR) control/stability and the discontinuation of warfarin therapy among patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). This study evaluated the association between INR stabilization and warfarin discontinuation and assessed INR patterns before and after INR stabilization among patients (18 years) with NVAF who newly initiated warfarin (Veterans Health Administration datasets; October 1, 2007 through September 30, 2012). Achievement of INR stabilization (3 consecutive in-range therapeutic INR measurements 7 days apart) was examined from warfarin initiation through the end of warfarin exposure. Proportion of time in therapeutic range during warfarin exposure was calculated (Rosendaal method) and categorized as at least 60% or less than 60%. Among 34346 patients, 49.4% achieved INR stabilization (mean time to stabilization, 98 days). Approximately 40% of INR values were out-of-range, even after achieving stabilization. During 30 days following an INR 4.0 or higher, patients had more INR testing than the overall mean (2.51 vs. 1.67 tests). Warfarin discontinuation was 4.2 times more likely among patients without INR stabilization versus those with INR stabilization (P<0.00001). Patients with poor INR control (time in therapeutic range <60%) were 1.76 times more likely to discontinue warfarin within 1 year (P<0.0001). INR stabilization is a better predictor of warfarin discontinuation than poor INR control. Improved approaches are necessary to maintain appropriate anticoagulation levels among patients with NVAF.
Citation - WoS: 3
Citation - Scopus: 4
State–business Relations, Financial Access and Firm Performance: a Causal Mediation Analysis
(Wiley, 2020) Karahasan, Burhan Can; Bilgel, Fırat
This study investigates the triangular relationship among state–business relations, financial access and economic performance in the Middle East and North Africa. We hypothesize that financial intermediation is a significant mediating factor in the relationship between state–business relations and firm performance. Employing a causal mediation analysis, results show that inefficient ties with the state are a cause of poor firm performance. Inefficient state–business relations reduce firm performance by 2.3 to 4.4 per cent through access to finance and by 12 to 40 per cent via its direct effect. About 3 to 16 per cent of the total effect is mediated through financial access, while the remaining is the direct effect.

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