Bilgisayar Mühendisliği Bölümü Koleksiyonu
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11779/1940
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Conference Object Combining Similar Trajectories and XGBoost via Residual Learning for Traffic Flow Forecasting(Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 2025-11-14) Işlak U.; Yilmaz E.; Arslan I.; Çakar T.; Çakar, Tuna; Işlak, Ümit; Yilmaz, Elif; Arslan, IlkerIn this study, we propose novel hybrid forecasting models that integrate the method of similar trajectories with machine learning techniques, particularly the XGBoost algorithm, for traffic flow prediction. Traditional statistical models, such as ARIMA, often struggle to accurately capture the complex, non-linear patterns characteristic of traffic flow data. To address these limitations, we develop an additive hybrid forecasting framework that combines the strengths of linear models (similar trajectories method) and non-linear models (XGBoost). Our proposed methods are evaluated on two different stations from the California PEMS dataset. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid models consistently outperform individual benchmark models, including ARIMA, standalone similar trajectories, and XGBoost. The superiority of the hybrid approach, particularly the XGBST model, is further validated through the Diebold-Mariano statistical test, confirming significant predictive improvements at various significance levels. Additionally, using weighted Euclidean distance within the similar trajectories method further enhanced forecasting accuracy. The interpretability and flexibility of our hybrid framework make it especially suitable for practical implementation in traffic management systems. These findings underline the effectiveness of hybrid modeling strategies in traffic flow forecasting and suggest future research directions, such as comprehensive hyperparameter optimization and broader validation across diverse datasets. © 2025 IEEE.Conference Object Feature Enrichment Via Similar Trajectories for Xgboost Based Time Series Forecasting(Ieee, 2024-05-15) Yilmaz, Elif; Islak, Umit; Çakar, Tuna; Arslan, Ilker; Matematik, ; Bilimi, Bilgisayar; Mühendisliği, MakineIn this study, new time series forecasting models are developed based on XGBoost, and the similar trajectories method (ST), which can be interpreted as a regression based on nearest neighbors. Both the similar trajectories method and XGBoost model are known to have successful applications in traffic flow prediction. In our case, the focus is on similar trajectories used in the former method, and features based on these trajectories are used in the training of XGBoost. The success of the proposed models is confirmed through metrics such as the mean absolute error. Also, statistical tests are performed among the compared benchmark models. The study is concluded with discussions and questions about how these models can be further developed.