Bilgisayar Mühendisliği Bölümü Koleksiyonu

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11779/1940

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  • Conference Object
    Attention-Enhanced Dual-Head LSTM With Rich Feature Engineering for Risk-Adjusted Stock Return Forecasting
    (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 2025-09-17) Patel J.; Gunes P.; Ertugrul S.; Sayar A.; Benli H.; Makaroglu D.; Cakar T.; Benli, Harun; Gunes, Peri; Patel, Jay; Makaroglu, Didem; Sayar, Alperen; Cakar, Tuna; Ertugrul, Seyit
    Stock return forecasting is a challenging task due to the complex, nonlinear, and volatile nature of financial markets. In this paper, we propose a comprehensive deep learning framework that integrates: a two-layer Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network augmented with a learnable attention mechanism, a dual-head output for simultaneous regression of next-day returns and classification of price direction, with an extensive suite of technical and macro-financial features. Our feature set comprises lagged log-returns, trend indicators (simple and exponential moving averages), momentum oscillators (RSI, MACD), volatility measures (rolling variance and GARCH conditional volatility), price bands (Bollinger Bands, Donchian channels), volume metrics (On-Balance Volume, Volume Rate of Change), Hidden Markov Model regime states, market index returns, and calendar effects. We train and validate the model using a rolling-window cross-validation scheme with early stopping and hyperparameter tuning to ensure temporal robustness. Empirical results on a large multi-stock dataset demonstrate that our attention-enhanced, dual-task LSTM outperforms single-task LSTMs and traditional machine learning benchmarks, achieving lower forecasting error and more stable generalization. © 2025 IEEE.
  • Conference Object
    Graph Theory-Based Fraud Detection in Banking Check Transactions
    (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 2025-09-17) Behsi Z.; Memis E.C.; Ertugrul S.; Sayar A.; Gunes P.; Seydioglu S.; Cakar T.; Gunes, Peri; Memis, Emir Cetin; Sayar, Alperen; Cakar, Tuna; Ertugrul, Seyit; Seydioglu, Sarper; Behsi, Zeynep
    Traditional banking fraud detection systems rely on rule-based approaches that analyze individual transactions in isolation, failing to capture complex relationship patterns indicative of coordinated fraud schemes such as check-kiting and artificial credit score manipulation. We p resent our study, a novel similarity-based graph theory approach that constructs weighted networks between check issuers using Jaccard Similarity Index and employs advanced graph analysis to identify suspicious entity clusters without requiring complete transaction relationship data. Our approach combines Jaccard Similarity Index for behavioral pattern analysis (addressing payee information unavailability) with comprehensive graph analysis including centrality measures, community detection, and anomaly identification. Through comprehensive evaluation on real banking data containing 458,399 transactions from 121,647 unique issuers - the largest confirmed dataset in fraud detection literature - we demonstrate the effectiveness of our methodology. Following parameter optimization using grid search methodology (similarity threshold: 0.55, risk percentile: 0.75), our study achieves competitive detection rates in optimal configurations with an average F1-score of 0.447 (±0.164) and peak performance reaching an F1-score of 0.557, while providing superior network topology analysis with 0.923 clustering coefficient. The system operates under significant data privacy constraints, lacking personal identification information (names, account numbers, IDs) and complete payee data. Despite these limitations, our study outperforms traditional approaches by leveraging similarity-based indirect relationships, and we project that performance could reach 85-95% levels with complete data access. © 2025 IEEE.
  • Conference Object
    Citation - Scopus: 1
    Distinguishing Cognitive Processes: a Machine Learning Approach To Decode Fnirs Data for Third-Party Punishment and Credit Decision-Making
    (Ieee, 2024-05-15) Filiz, Gozde; Son, Semen; Sayar, Alperen; Ertugrul, Seyit; Sahin, Turkay; Akyurek, Guclu; Çakar, Tuna
    Functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) has seen increasingly widespread use in examining brain activity and cognitive processes. However, the existing literature provides insufficient information on distinguishing between different decision-making mechanisms. This study explores the application of fNIRS in differentiating between two distinct decision-making processes: third-party punishment decisions and credit decisions. The research includes analyzing fNIRS data collected during these processes and classifying the associated neural patterns using machine learning. The findings reveal that fNIRS, in conjunction with ML, holds substantial potential to enhance the depth of understanding of decision-making processes in neuroscience research.
  • Conference Object
    Citation - Scopus: 1
    Modeling Consumer Creditworthiness Via Psychometric Scale and Machine Learning
    (IEEE, 2022-09-14) Çakar, Tuna; Ertugrul, Seyit; Sayar, Alperen; Sahin, Türkay; Bozkan, Tunahan
    Although the predictive power of economic metrics to detect the creditworthiness of the customers is high, there is a rising interest in the integration of cognitive, psychological, behavioral, alternative, and demographic data into credit risk systems and processing the data through modern methods. The primary motivation for the rising interest is increased customer classification accuracy. In this research, customer creditworthiness was modeled through data consisting of personality, money attitudes, impulsivity, self-esteem, self-control, and material values and processed through artificial intelligence. The obtained findings have been evaluated as a reference point for the following research. © 2022 IEEE.