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X-Capm Revisited: the Institutional Extrapolative Capital Asset Pricing Model (i-X
(Eurasian Publications, 2018) Son Turan, Semen; Kılıç, Erdem
This study constructs and tests a consumption-based asset pricing model in which someinvestors form beliefs about future price changes in the stock market by extrapolating past pricechanges, while other investors hold fully rational beliefs. The contribution of the present work isthe inclusion of institutional investor bias. As such it extends theory. But it also conductseconometric tests by using daily survey data on individual and institutional investors’ sentimenton the current economic situation and their future expectations. Empirical findings may implythat institutions’ sentiment reverts quicker to the equilibrium price than individual sentiment, atleast with regard to their beliefs on future economic outlook. If studied further with a biggerdataset, it may imply that institutional investors are closer to the rational-decision makingmechanism compared to individual investors. The theoretical framework rests on prospecttheory. The market studied is the US equity market, however findings and suggestions can beapplied to global markets and various financial instruments.
The Impact of Investor Sentiment on the "leverage Effect"
(Econometric Research Association, 2016) Son-Turan, Semen
With the advent of the Internet and the availability of user search query data on a broaderscale, since the early 2000s researchers have started using collective search queryinformation instead of, or, in addition to, traditional investor sentiment proxies. Thisstudy examines whether the leverage (bad news) effect, as measured by theEGARCH (1,1) model, changes with the inclusion of a newly emerging sentiment proxy,internet search volume. The sample consists of 14 US companies belonging to theNASDAQ and NYSE Indices and 501 observations of data collected at weekly frequencyspanning a nine year period. Empirical findings suggest that, inclusion of the investorsentiment variable has no clear impact on the bad news effect; there is, however, adiscernible increase in volatility persistence. The implications of the findings are that theinvestor sentiment proxy has additional informational content. Behavioral finance theoryand the availability and social proof heuristics serve as potential explanations for suchfindings.

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