GCRIS

In this study, the effects of Exchange rate volatility on export and import of Turkey is analysed by employing monthly trade data for the period from January 2004 to November 2015. The study is extended to cover both sectoral and country specific export and import volumes. The major aim of this study is to show how fluctuations in foreign exchange rate change the volume of exports and imports among various sectors in Turkey. In this paper export and import volume equation is formulated using sectoral data in which explanatory variables are derived from the volatility of each country’s nominal exchange rate against the TRY, bilateral real effective exchange rates for each country that Turkey has foreign trade relationship. The dependent or target variable is the percentage change in the trade size in USD amount both for export and import. In this analysis, 6 different regression algorithms are utilized to explain the effect of exchange rate volatility on industrial activities for exportand import in Turkey. The impact of features on the target feature is analyzed using linear, ridge, lasso, random forest, decision ree and gradient boosting regression algorithms. According to results of these 6 algorithms, for Turkey, the volatility of exchangerate has significant impact on some sectors and on broad product group categories in both export and import up to 26%. The sectors that most exposed to Exchange rate volatilities are seen in ‘Giyim Eşyası’ in export and ‘Binek otomobilleri’ in import. For export, ‘Rusya Federasyonu’, and for import ‘İtalya’ is the most sensitive countries against exchange rate volatility in Turkey.

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