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The role of pearl’s causal framework in empirical research
(Türkiye Ekonomi Kurumu Vakfı, 2024) Bilgel, Fırat
This paper underscores the necessity of formulating precise research questions that clarify causal relationships rather than simply identifying correlations and highlights the perils of relying solely on regression analysis in tackling complex causal inquiries without causal diagrams or structural causal models. It introduces Judea Pearl's causal epistemology, including causal graphs, structural causal models, and do-calculus as vital tools for estimating causal effects. It extends to the challenges of confounding and collider effects, the application of do-calculus with basic examples from Law & Economics and the advancements in causal discovery methods through constraint-based algorithms. The paper also offers a brief roadmap on best practices for identification and estimation.
Citation - WoS: 1
Citation - Scopus: 1
Understanding Covid-19 Mobility Through Human Capital: a Unified Causal Framework
(Springer, 2023-02-21) Bilgel, Fırat; Karahasan, Burhan Can
This paper seeks to identify the causal impact of educational human capital on social distancing behavior at workplace in Turkey using district-level data for the period of April 2020 - February 2021. We adopt a unified causal framework, predicated on domain knowledge, theory-justified constraints anda data-driven causal structure discovery using causal graphs. We answer our causal query by employing machine learning prediction algorithms; instrumental variables in the presence of latent confounding and Heckman's model in the presence of selection bias. Results show that educated regions are able to distance-work and educational human capital is a key factor in reducing workplace mobility, possibly through its impact on employment. This pattern leads to higher workplace mobility for less educated regions and translates into higher Covid-19 infection rates. The future of the pandemic lies in less educated segments of developing countries and calls for public health action to decrease its unequal and pervasive impact.
Citation - WoS: 2
Citation - Scopus: 2
Effects of Covid-19 Lockdowns on Social Distancing in Turkey
(Oxford University Press, 2022-05-23) Bilgel, Fırat
This paper elucidates the causal effect of lockdowns on social distancing behaviour in Turkey by adopting an augmented synthetic control and a factor-augmented model approach for imputing counterfactuals. By constructing a synthetic control group that reproduces pre-lockdown trajectory of mobility of the treated provinces and that accommodates staggered adoption, the difference between the counterfactual and actual mobility of treated provinces is assessed in the post-lockdown period. The analysis shows that in the short run following the onset of lockdowns, outdoor mobility would have been about 17–53 percentage points higher on average in the absence of lockdowns, depending on social distancing measure. However, residential mobility would have been about 12 percentage points lower in the absence of lockdowns. The findings are corroborated using interactive fixed effects and matrix completion counterfactuals that accommodate staggered adoption and treatment reversals.
Citation - WoS: 10
Citation - Scopus: 12
The Topography and Sources of Multidimensional Poverty in Turkey
(Springer, 2021-01-03) Karahasan, Burhan Can; Bilgel, Fırat
Economic inequality and poverty have been extensively analyzed in monetary terms. However, other aspects of poverty, such as education, health, environment and standards of living are important factors, essential for human well-being and capabilities. Using a host of non-monetary aspects of poverty, this paper sheds light on the geographical distribution of multidimensional poverty in Turkey. Results from survey data highlight that the regional distribution non-monetary dimensions of poverty is conspicuously different than that of relative monetary poverty in Turkey. Unlike the relative monetary poverty rate, multidimensional poverty measurement reflects the regional underdevelopment problem of Turkey. On the contrary, once monetary poverty is considered in absolute terms, multidimensional and absolute monetary poverty have a similar geographical pattern. Moreover, the decomposition analyses point out that females, old disabled and socially excluded individuals suffer the most from multidimensional poverty. Our combined results show that the isolated eastern regions realize the highest poverty and deprivation at each decomposition level.

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