Ekonomi Bölümü Koleksiyonu
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11779/1936
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Article Quality of Government Cohesion Across EU Regions: Success or Failure(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2026-01-16) Karahasan, Burhan CanRegional differences in institutions is a threat for political and economic integration. In this paper, we analyse the institutional convergence across regions of the European Union (EU). Preliminary results show that there is continuous improvement fostering institutional convergence. However, heterogeneity analyses point-out that the speed of institutional development is influenced by the enlargement phases of the union. Additional results indicate that the regions of the Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries and the southern regions belonging to Greece and Spain experience faster institutional convergence. Accordingly, the enlargement process, fostering further heterogeneity, is an important element to improve the institutional quality of the new EU members. However, temporal convergence trends show that the dynamics of institutional convergence shift over time, reflecting the non-stationary evolution of success-failure cases.Article Citation - WoS: 2Citation - Scopus: 4Heterogeneous Impact of Innovation on Economic Development: Evidence from EU Regions(Elsevier Sci Ltd, 2026-03-01) Pinar, Mehmet; Karahasan, Burhan CanThis paper investigates the heterogeneous impact of innovation on economic development across European Union (EU) regions, with a focus on regional competitiveness driven by innovation-based capabilities. While innovation is a key driver of economic growth, its effects are not uniformly distributed. Using the Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression models, the study examines how different dimensions of innovation (technological readiness, business sophistication, and overall innovation capacity) affect regional GDP per capita. The results show that regions with higher innovation-based competitiveness generally achieve higher income levels. However, the impact of innovation is spatially uneven. While core EU regions (particularly, in Northern and Western Europe) benefit more strongly from innovation, peripheral regions (in Southern and Eastern Europe) often experience weaker and in some cases even negative, effects. These results highlight the importance of accounting for spatial variation when designing innovation and cohesion policies. The paper calls for tailored, place-based strategies to address regional disparities in innovation-driven development and suggests that current EU policies should be adjusted to better support lagging regions.Article Citation - WoS: 1Unemployment Polarisation and Club Convergence in Türkiye(Wiley, 2025-02-04) Karahasan, Burhan CanTurkish economy has undergone massive transformation during the 2000s. Annual economic growth reached a peak of 10% in the early 2000s. However, the side effects of global financial crises and the internal macroeconomic imbalances shift the growth trajectory of T & uuml;rkiye into a new path of unstable economic growth. While macroeconomic consequences are densely discussed we know less about the adjustment of local labour markets. To fill this gap, we examine the club formation of Turkish regions by analysing their unemployment trajectories during the post 2000s. Our findings show that despite rapid economic growth Turkish regions get extremely polarised and form distinct convergence clubs. Remarkably polarisation is higher for the female population. Geographically, polarisation is in the form of an isolation for the least developed south-eastern regions and some of the developed urbanised western regions. Additionally, our robustness exercises indicate higher polarisation after 2013 as Turkish economic growth starts to become more volatile and less sustainable. Finally, our spatial extensions show that impact of spatial proximity has significant influence on the accurate extent of unemployment deprivation.Article Citation - WoS: 1Populism and Income Inequality: Is Income Inequality in Türkiye a Political Choice?(Istanbul Univ, 2024-12-31) Asfuroğlu, DilaThe argument that national inequalities are political and thereby driven by political decisions implies that income distribution is not merely an economic phenomenon but also a political one. Hence, this study explores the impact of populist governance on income inequality in T & uuml;rkiye. In doing so, this study addresses whether income inequality in T & uuml;rkiye is a political choice, drawing on economic, social, and political data over the years 20082022. According to the results of the quantitative analysis, the share of income for the working class has fallen, the income gap between the lowest and highest deciles of the working class has narrowed, and the potential for fiscal interventions to reduce income inequality is not realised. In return, the income inequality that existed in 2008 has persisted at the same magnitude over the years. In other words, even if income inequality is not an explicit political choice, the populist governance in T & uuml;rkiye between 2008 and 2022 has chosen not to contribute to the solution to this prevailing inequality.Article Citation - WoS: 4Citation - Scopus: 4Institutional Quality and Geography of Discontent in the Eu(John Wiley and Sons Inc, 2023-12-12) Pınar, Mehmet; Karahasan, Burhan CanThere has been a significant rise in anti-establishment votes in the European Union (EU). The decline in socio-economic outcomes and migration played an important role in understanding the rising discontent. However, none of the existing studies analysed the effect of socio-economic factors in different institutional settings. Our findings confirm that institutional quality is of paramount importance in explaining the recent rise in populism in the EU, as institutionally developed EU regions are less opposed to EU integration. Remarkably, the effects of socio-economic factors on populist votes vary in different institutional settings. The findings highlight that institutional improvements are vital for the EU perception of less developed and socio-economically isolated EU regions.Article Citation - WoS: 1Citation - Scopus: 1Understanding Covid-19 Mobility Through Human Capital: a Unified Causal Framework(Springer, 2023-02-21) Bilgel, Fırat; Karahasan, Burhan CanThis paper seeks to identify the causal impact of educational human capital on social distancing behavior at workplace in Turkey using district-level data for the period of April 2020 - February 2021. We adopt a unified causal framework, predicated on domain knowledge, theory-justified constraints anda data-driven causal structure discovery using causal graphs. We answer our causal query by employing machine learning prediction algorithms; instrumental variables in the presence of latent confounding and Heckman's model in the presence of selection bias. Results show that educated regions are able to distance-work and educational human capital is a key factor in reducing workplace mobility, possibly through its impact on employment. This pattern leads to higher workplace mobility for less educated regions and translates into higher Covid-19 infection rates. The future of the pandemic lies in less educated segments of developing countries and calls for public health action to decrease its unequal and pervasive impact.Article Citation - WoS: 2Citation - Scopus: 2Effects of Covid-19 Lockdowns on Social Distancing in Turkey(Oxford University Press, 2022-05-23) Bilgel, FıratThis paper elucidates the causal effect of lockdowns on social distancing behaviour in Turkey by adopting an augmented synthetic control and a factor-augmented model approach for imputing counterfactuals. By constructing a synthetic control group that reproduces pre-lockdown trajectory of mobility of the treated provinces and that accommodates staggered adoption, the difference between the counterfactual and actual mobility of treated provinces is assessed in the post-lockdown period. The analysis shows that in the short run following the onset of lockdowns, outdoor mobility would have been about 17–53 percentage points higher on average in the absence of lockdowns, depending on social distancing measure. However, residential mobility would have been about 12 percentage points lower in the absence of lockdowns. The findings are corroborated using interactive fixed effects and matrix completion counterfactuals that accommodate staggered adoption and treatment reversals.Article Citation - WoS: 6Citation - Scopus: 6Effects of Vaccination and the Spatio-Temporal Diffusion of Covid-19 Incidence in Turkey(John Wiley and Sons Inc, 2022-06-04) Bilgel, Fırat; Karahasan, Burhan CanThis study assesses the spatio-temporal impact of vaccination efforts on Covid-19 incidence growth in Turkey. Incorporating geographical features of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, we adopt a spatial Susceptible–Infected–Recovered (SIR) model that serves as a guide of our empirical specification. Using provincial weekly panel data, we estimate a dynamic spatial autoregressive (SAR) model to elucidate the short- and the long-run impact of vaccination on Covid-19 incidence growth after controlling for temporal and spatio-temporal diffusion, testing capacity, social distancing behavior and unobserved space-varying confounders. Results show that vaccination growth reduces Covid-19 incidence growth rate directly and indirectly by creating a positive externality over space. The significant association between vaccination and Covid-19 incidence is robust to a host of spatial weight matrix specifications. Conspicuous spatial and temporal diffusion effects of Covid-19 incidence growth were found across all specifications: the former being a severer threat to the containment of the pandemic than the latter.Article Citation - WoS: 6Citation - Scopus: 8Arbitrageur Behavior in Sentiment-Driven Asset-Pricing(World Scientific Publishing, 2021-09-01) Kılıç, Erdem; Oğuzhan, Göksel; Goksel, OguzhanThis study aims to model arbitrageur behavior in a sentiment-driven capital asset-pricing model under the premise of reflecting a more detailed decomposition of investor types in the equity markets. We explore the behavior and the impact of arbitrageur behavior, particularly, on pricing and on key financial ratios. We observe that the prevalence of the arbitrageur counteracts the effects of unsophisticated investors, resulting in a lower volatility of the price–dividend ratio, lower predictive power of changes in consumption for future price changes and lower equity premium. Thus, the results of our research allow us to conjecture that the extrapolation bias in the prices is lowered.Article Citation - WoS: 1Citation - Scopus: 1Great Recession and News Shocks: Evidence Based on an Estimated Dsge Model(Springer, 2021-05-21) Nebioğlu, DenizThis paper examines whether productivity news shocks were among the drivers of the Great Recession. To do this, the Smets and Wouters (Am Econ Rev 97(3):586–606, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.97.3.586) model is extended by a generalized preference specification which allows for scaling wealth effects on the labor supply. The resulting model is estimated using Bayesian methods which draw upon the US data from the period 1965Q2 to 2014Q3. There are four main results: (i) Estimation of the model is inconclusive regarding the degree of wealth elasticity of the labor supply. As a result, two complementary versions of the model prevail, each of which has differing implications for the transmission and the quantitative importance of exogenous shocks. (ii) When the degree of wealth elasticity of the labor supply is low, news shocks replace risk premium shocks, suggesting that news shocks are one possible reason for fluctuations in US business cycles. (iii) When the Great Recession period is analyzed through the lenses of the two complementary versions of the model, two explanations emerge as potential reasons behind the deepening of the crisis: worsening credit conditions as well as the collapse of over-optimistic expectations regarding future productivity. (iv) For both model specifications, general developments in productivity are estimated to be positive. Therefore, productivity slowdown is not considered to be among the reasons for the emergence or persistence of the Great Recession.