Churn Prediction for Subscription-Based Applications Using Machine Learning

Abstract

In this study, a predictive model was developed using machine learning techniques to forecast customer churn in subscription-based video streaming services. The data such as user login records, content viewing information, subscription details, and content-related features were used to interpret usage patterns and customer churn was defined based on subscription renewal status and renewal timing. Several usage-based features are extracted for users and several algorithms were used for modeling, such as Random Forest, CatBoost, XGBoost, Logistic Regression, K-Nearest Neighbors, and Gradient Boosting. Occurring class imbalance on the target variable is handled via BorderLineSMOTE. The model's performance was evaluated using training-test accuracy plots, classification reports, and hyperparameter tuning. Even though most of the models performed similarly, the CatBoost model emerged as the top performer, achieving a macro F1-score of 0.60. However, while effective in identifying churners, the models struggled to precisely classify non-churning customers, a common challenge in imbalanced datasets even after applying oversampling techniques. The analysis of feature importance yielded a crucial insight, early and consistent user engagement is the strongest predictor of customer retention. These findings provide valuable, actionable insights for streaming platforms, emphasizing that retention strategies should focus on maximizing engagement immediately after a user subscribes. © 2025 IEEE.