The Future of Türkiye-NATO Relations in Light of the Strained Transatlantic Dialogue

Abstract

This commentary aims to assess the impact of the changing approach of the U.S. under Trump's second administration on transatlantic relations, the future of NATO, its engagement in the war in Ukraine, and the prospects for further expansion toward the east. The paper also aims to shed light on how these developments may affect the future of Türkiye-NATO relations. While Türkiye remains a critical NATO member due to its strategic geography and military capabilities, domestic skepticism towards the Alliance has grown in response to unresolved disputes and perceived double standards. The commentary ultimately underscores that Türkiye’s future in NATO will depend on the Alliance’s ability to reconcile internal divisions, recalibrate its strategic vision, and balance Türkiye’s security concerns with broader transatlantic priorities. © 2025, SETA Foundation. All rights reserved.