Quantifying the Grounding Probability in Narrow Waterways

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to estimate the grounding probability of vessels while navigating in narrow waterways. In this study, the grounding probability is modelled as a combination the geometric probability, defined as vessel being on a grounding course and the causation probability, defined as the probability that the vessel is unable to avoid a grounding while being on a grounding course. A mathematical model is developed to estimate the geometric probability where the causation probability is estimated through a specially designed Bayesian network. The Strait of Istanbul, one of the narrowest waterways in the world, is used as a test case. The resulting grounding and ramming accidents are 2.8 times the ship collisions. The most critical causes of grounding accidents are the machine failure, steering inadequacy and lack of pilot support, respectively. With different input parameters, the proposed approach may be applied to other narrow waterways.