Ekonomi Bölümü Koleksiyonu

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11779/1936

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Citation - WoS: 4
Citation - Scopus: 4
Economic Geography and Human Capital Accumulation in Turkey: Evidence From Micro-Data
(Routledge, 2021) Karahasan, Burhan Can; Bilgel, Fırat
This study examines the impact of market access on human capital accumulation in Turkey. Using individual-level data, the analysis explores the background of human capital accumulation, combining market accessibility, wages and human capital development. Upon the treatment of wages as an endogenous covariate of interest and overtime work as an exogenous source of variation, we find evidence that the impact of market access on human capital development vanishes in ways not predicted by the augmented New Economic Geography set-up for human capital accumulation. Findings confirm that economic policies may be effective in reducing regional variation in human capital endowments.
Citation - WoS: 2
Citation - Scopus: 2
Effects of Covid-19 Lockdowns on Social Distancing in Turkey
(Oxford University Press, 2022) Bilgel, Fırat
This paper elucidates the causal effect of lockdowns on social distancing behaviour in Turkey by adopting an augmented synthetic control and a factor-augmented model approach for imputing counterfactuals. By constructing a synthetic control group that reproduces pre-lockdown trajectory of mobility of the treated provinces and that accommodates staggered adoption, the difference between the counterfactual and actual mobility of treated provinces is assessed in the post-lockdown period. The analysis shows that in the short run following the onset of lockdowns, outdoor mobility would have been about 17–53 percentage points higher on average in the absence of lockdowns, depending on social distancing measure. However, residential mobility would have been about 12 percentage points lower in the absence of lockdowns. The findings are corroborated using interactive fixed effects and matrix completion counterfactuals that accommodate staggered adoption and treatment reversals.
Citation - WoS: 4
Citation - Scopus: 4
Effects of Vaccination and the Spatio-Temporal Diffusion of Covid-19 Incidence in Turkey
(John Wiley and Sons Inc, 2022) Bilgel, Fırat; Karahasan, Burhan Can
This study assesses the spatio-temporal impact of vaccination efforts on Covid-19 incidence growth in Turkey. Incorporating geographical features of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, we adopt a spatial Susceptible–Infected–Recovered (SIR) model that serves as a guide of our empirical specification. Using provincial weekly panel data, we estimate a dynamic spatial autoregressive (SAR) model to elucidate the short- and the long-run impact of vaccination on Covid-19 incidence growth after controlling for temporal and spatio-temporal diffusion, testing capacity, social distancing behavior and unobserved space-varying confounders. Results show that vaccination growth reduces Covid-19 incidence growth rate directly and indirectly by creating a positive externality over space. The significant association between vaccination and Covid-19 incidence is robust to a host of spatial weight matrix specifications. Conspicuous spatial and temporal diffusion effects of Covid-19 incidence growth were found across all specifications: the former being a severer threat to the containment of the pandemic than the latter.
Citation - WoS: 18
Citation - Scopus: 18
Guns and Homicides: a Multiscale Geographically Weighted Instrumental Variables Approach
(Wiley, 2019) Bilgel, Fırat
This article assesses the locally varying effects of gun ownership levels on total and gun homicide rates in the contiguous United States using cross-sectional county data for the period 2009–2015. Employing a multiscale geographically weighted instrumental variables regression that takes into account spatial nonstationarity in the processes and the endogenous nature of gun ownership levels, estimates show that gun ownership exerts spatially monotonically negative effects on total and gun homicide rates, indicating that there are no counties supporting the “more guns, more crime” hypothesis for these two highly important crime categories. The number of counties in the contiguous United States where the “more guns, less crime” hypothesis is confirmed is limited to at least 1258 counties (44.8% of the sample) with the strongest total homicide-decreasing effects concentrated in southeastern Texas and the deep south. On the other hand, stricter state gun control laws exert spatially monotonically negative effects on gun homicide rates with the strongest effects concentrated in the southern tip of Texas extending toward the deep south.
Citation - WoS: 7
Citation - Scopus: 7
Market Access and Regional Dispersion of Human Capital Accumulation in Turkey
(Wiley, 2020) Karahasan, Burhan Can; Bilgel, Fırat
Building on early advances in development economics, the theoretical construct of new economic geography asserts that geography plays a crucial role in educational human capital accumulation. Based on this expectation, this study investigates the impact of market access on provincial human capital accumulation in Turkey. Results indicate that market access matters for understanding why some regions lag behind others in terms of average years of schooling. Our results are robust to the inclusion of spatial mechanisms, different specifications of the spatial weight matrix, endogeneity and alternative measurements of market access and to a host of other factors that affect regional human capital accumulation.
State Gun Control Laws, Gun Ownership and the Supply of Homicide Organ Donors
(Elsevier, 2020) Bilgel, Fırat
The likelihood of being a potential deceased organ donor is higher for individuals who have been exposed to situations typically characterized by a severe head trauma or stroke that result in brain death. Employing count data models that account for overdispersion and/or excessive counts of zeros, this paper assesses the unintended consequences of enforcing stricter gun control laws and the effects of gun ownership on homicide organ donor supply in the United States using county data for the period 2009–2015. The findings confirm the transplantation paradox hypothesis that stricter gun control laws reduce the expected cases of gun homicides and thereby reduce deceased organ donor supply and exacerbate the organ shortage. The findings are robust to several measures of the strength of gun control laws, restricted samples and spurious outcome variables. However, the direction of the impact of gun ownership levels on homicide organ donor supply proved to be inconclusive.
Citation - WoS: 3
Citation - Scopus: 4
State–business Relations, Financial Access and Firm Performance: a Causal Mediation Analysis
(Wiley, 2020) Karahasan, Burhan Can; Bilgel, Fırat
This study investigates the triangular relationship among state–business relations, financial access and economic performance in the Middle East and North Africa. We hypothesize that financial intermediation is a significant mediating factor in the relationship between state–business relations and firm performance. Employing a causal mediation analysis, results show that inefficient ties with the state are a cause of poor firm performance. Inefficient state–business relations reduce firm performance by 2.3 to 4.4 per cent through access to finance and by 12 to 40 per cent via its direct effect. About 3 to 16 per cent of the total effect is mediated through financial access, while the remaining is the direct effect.
The role of pearl’s causal framework in empirical research
(Türkiye Ekonomi Kurumu Vakfı, 2024) Bilgel, Fırat
This paper underscores the necessity of formulating precise research questions that clarify causal relationships rather than simply identifying correlations and highlights the perils of relying solely on regression analysis in tackling complex causal inquiries without causal diagrams or structural causal models. It introduces Judea Pearl's causal epistemology, including causal graphs, structural causal models, and do-calculus as vital tools for estimating causal effects. It extends to the challenges of confounding and collider effects, the application of do-calculus with basic examples from Law & Economics and the advancements in causal discovery methods through constraint-based algorithms. The paper also offers a brief roadmap on best practices for identification and estimation.
Citation - WoS: 10
Citation - Scopus: 12
The Topography and Sources of Multidimensional Poverty in Turkey
(Springer, 2021) Karahasan, Burhan Can; Bilgel, Fırat
Economic inequality and poverty have been extensively analyzed in monetary terms. However, other aspects of poverty, such as education, health, environment and standards of living are important factors, essential for human well-being and capabilities. Using a host of non-monetary aspects of poverty, this paper sheds light on the geographical distribution of multidimensional poverty in Turkey. Results from survey data highlight that the regional distribution non-monetary dimensions of poverty is conspicuously different than that of relative monetary poverty in Turkey. Unlike the relative monetary poverty rate, multidimensional poverty measurement reflects the regional underdevelopment problem of Turkey. On the contrary, once monetary poverty is considered in absolute terms, multidimensional and absolute monetary poverty have a similar geographical pattern. Moreover, the decomposition analyses point out that females, old disabled and socially excluded individuals suffer the most from multidimensional poverty. Our combined results show that the isolated eastern regions realize the highest poverty and deprivation at each decomposition level.
Understanding Covid-19 Mobility Through Human Capital: a Unified Causal Framework
(Springer, 2023) Bilgel, Fırat; Karahasan, Burhan Can
This paper seeks to identify the causal impact of educational human capital on social distancing behavior at workplace in Turkey using district-level data for the period of April 2020 - February 2021. We adopt a unified causal framework, predicated on domain knowledge, theory-justified constraints anda data-driven causal structure discovery using causal graphs. We answer our causal query by employing machine learning prediction algorithms; instrumental variables in the presence of latent confounding and Heckman's model in the presence of selection bias. Results show that educated regions are able to distance-work and educational human capital is a key factor in reducing workplace mobility, possibly through its impact on employment. This pattern leads to higher workplace mobility for less educated regions and translates into higher Covid-19 infection rates. The future of the pandemic lies in less educated segments of developing countries and calls for public health action to decrease its unequal and pervasive impact.

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Browsing Ekonomi Bölümü Koleksiyonu by Institution Author "Bilgel, Fırat"