Ekonomi Bölümü Koleksiyonu

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11779/1936

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Citation - WoS: 10
Citation - Scopus: 12
Contagion Effects of U.s. Dollar and Chinese Yuan in Forward and Spot Foreign Exchange Markets
(Elsevier, 2017) Kılıç, Erdem
Financial contagion in forex markets is modeled by the application of a bivariate Hawkes stochastic jumpprocess. The self-exciting and mutually exciting properties of the jump-clustering model allow for illustratinginternal and cross-sectional transmission processes. The results obtained suggest stronger effects from US tomutual markets than in the reverse case. Cross-sectional excitation dynamics in the spot markets are larger thanin the forward markets. As a central result, we can observe that the results for the Hawkes-model parameters aremore significant in the forward markets. Transmission dynamics beyond volatility determine the likelihood ofcontagion occurrence. The significance of the decay parameters towards the long term jump intensities supportsthe importance of abrupt fluctuations in the contagion discourse.
Citation - WoS: 7
Citation - Scopus: 7
Exchange Rates and Firm Survival: an Examination With Turkish Firm-Level Data
(Elsevier, 2016) Toraganlı, Nazlı; Yazgan, Mustafa Ege
Micro-level empirical research has begun to obtain important results on the effects of currency variations on firms’ survival. The literature has, however, lacked a detailed analysis of the effects of exchange rates on firms’ survival behavior in emerging markets due to a scarcity of firm-level information. Using a firm-level dataset, we investigate the impact of currency appreciation on the survival behavior of Turkish firms in the manufacturing industries for 2002–2009. Our results suggest that real exchange rate appreciation decreases the probability of survival in the manufacturing industries. We also find that high-productivity firms have a higher probability of survival than low- productivity firms following an appreciation of the exchange rate. Our findings indicate that the negative effect of a 1% real appreciation of the domestic currency on the survival probability of a given firm ranges from 4.5 to 9%, providing evidence for the vulnerability of developing countries to exchange rate movements. This evidence indicates that, especially for emerging market economies, economic events and policies leading to an appreciation in the domestic currency should be managed cautiously.
Citation - WoS: 25
Citation - Scopus: 25
Impact of Switching From an Initial Tumor Necrosis Factor Inhibitor on Health Care Resource Utilization and Costs Among Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis
(Elsevier, 2015) Roy, Sanjoy; Ganguli, Arijit; Xie, Lin; Başer, Onur; Cifaldi, Mary
Purpose: Despite improved clinical outcomes for the majority of patients, nearly 30% of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) who initiate tumor necrosis factor antagonist (anti-TNF) biologic agents fail to respond to their first-line anti-TNF and switch to another anti-TNF or a non-TNF biologic. How this change affects health care costs and resource utilization is unknown. We therefore compared RA patients taking first-line anti-TNFs who switched to a second anti-TNF versus those patients who switched to an alternate biologic. Methods: Health care claims data were obtained from a large US database for eligible adults with confirmed RA diagnoses who initiated anti-TNF treatment and switched to another biologic. Health care costs and utilization during the first 12 months' postswitch were compared. Generalized linear models were used to adjust for differences in demographic and clinical characteristics before switching. Findings: Patients who switched to a second anti-TNF rather than a non-TNF biologic were generally younger (53.0 vs. 55.3 years; P < 0.0001) and less likely to be female (79.7% vs. 82.7%; P = 0.0490). Of the 3497 eligible patients who switched from first-line anti-TNFs, 2563 (73.3%) switched to another anti-TNF and 934 (26.7%) switched to a non-TNF. Adalimumab was the most frequently prescribed (43.4%) second-line anti-TNF, and abatacept was the most common non anti-TNF (71.4%). Patients who switched to a second anti-TNF remained on their first medication for a significantly shorter period (342.5 vs 420.6 days; P < 0.0001) and had lower comorbidity indices and higher disease severity at baseline than those who switched to a non anti-TNF. After adjusting for baseline differences, patients who switched to second anti-TNFs versus a non-TNF incurred lower RA-related costs ($20,938.9 vs $22,645.2; P = 0.0010) and total health care costs ($34,894.6 vs $38,437.2; P = 0.0010) 1 year postswitch. These differences were driven by increased physician office visit costs among the non-TNF group. Implications: Among the anti-TNF initiators who switched therapy, more patients switched to a second anti-TNF than to a non-TNF. Switching to a second anti-TNF treatment was associated with lower all-cause and RA-related health care costs and resource utilization than switching to a non-TNF. Because switching therapy may be unavoidable, finding a treatment algorithm mitigating this increase to any extent should be considered. These data are limited by their retrospective design. Additional confounding variables that could not be controlled for may affect results. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier HS journals, Inc.
Citation - WoS: 44
Citation - Scopus: 47
Population Density Index and Its Use for Distribution of Covid-19: a Case Study Using Turkish Data
(Elsevier, 2020) Başer, Onur
Since March 2020, many countries around the world have been experiencing a large outbreak of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). Because there is a higher rate of contact between humans in cities with higher population weighted densities, Covid-19 spreads faster in these areas. In this study, we examined the relationship between population weighted density and the spread of Covid-19. Using data from Turkey, we calculated the elasticity of Covid-19 spread with respect to population weighted density to be 0.67 after controlling for other factors. In addition to the density, the proportion of people over 65, the per capita GDP, and the number of total health care workers in each city positively contributed to the case numbers, while education level and temperature had a negative effect. We suggested a policy measure on how to transfer health care workers from different areas to the areas with a possibility of wide spread.
State Gun Control Laws, Gun Ownership and the Supply of Homicide Organ Donors
(Elsevier, 2020) Bilgel, Fırat
The likelihood of being a potential deceased organ donor is higher for individuals who have been exposed to situations typically characterized by a severe head trauma or stroke that result in brain death. Employing count data models that account for overdispersion and/or excessive counts of zeros, this paper assesses the unintended consequences of enforcing stricter gun control laws and the effects of gun ownership on homicide organ donor supply in the United States using county data for the period 2009–2015. The findings confirm the transplantation paradox hypothesis that stricter gun control laws reduce the expected cases of gun homicides and thereby reduce deceased organ donor supply and exacerbate the organ shortage. The findings are robust to several measures of the strength of gun control laws, restricted samples and spurious outcome variables. However, the direction of the impact of gun ownership levels on homicide organ donor supply proved to be inconclusive.

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