Ekonomi Bölümü Koleksiyonu
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11779/1936
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Review Article Pearl’in Nedensel Modelinin Ampirik Araştırmadaki Rolü(2024) Bılgel, FıratThis paper underscores the necessity of formulating precise research questions that clarify causal relationships rather than simply identifying correlations and highlights the perils of relying solely on regression analysis in tackling complex causal inquiries without causal diagrams or structural causal models. It introduces Judea Pearl's causal epistemology, including causal graphs, structural causal models, and do-calculus as vital tools for estimating causal effects. It extends to the challenges of confounding and collider effects, the application of do-calculus with basic examples from Law & Economics and the advancements in causal discovery methods through constraint-based algorithms. The paper also offers a brief roadmap on best practices for identification and estimation.Article Quality of Government Cohesion Across EU Regions: Success or Failure(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2026-01-16) Karahasan, Burhan CanRegional differences in institutions is a threat for political and economic integration. In this paper, we analyse the institutional convergence across regions of the European Union (EU). Preliminary results show that there is continuous improvement fostering institutional convergence. However, heterogeneity analyses point-out that the speed of institutional development is influenced by the enlargement phases of the union. Additional results indicate that the regions of the Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries and the southern regions belonging to Greece and Spain experience faster institutional convergence. Accordingly, the enlargement process, fostering further heterogeneity, is an important element to improve the institutional quality of the new EU members. However, temporal convergence trends show that the dynamics of institutional convergence shift over time, reflecting the non-stationary evolution of success-failure cases.Article Citation - WoS: 2Citation - Scopus: 4Heterogeneous Impact of Innovation on Economic Development: Evidence from EU Regions(Elsevier Sci Ltd, 2026-03-01) Pinar, Mehmet; Karahasan, Burhan CanThis paper investigates the heterogeneous impact of innovation on economic development across European Union (EU) regions, with a focus on regional competitiveness driven by innovation-based capabilities. While innovation is a key driver of economic growth, its effects are not uniformly distributed. Using the Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression models, the study examines how different dimensions of innovation (technological readiness, business sophistication, and overall innovation capacity) affect regional GDP per capita. The results show that regions with higher innovation-based competitiveness generally achieve higher income levels. However, the impact of innovation is spatially uneven. While core EU regions (particularly, in Northern and Western Europe) benefit more strongly from innovation, peripheral regions (in Southern and Eastern Europe) often experience weaker and in some cases even negative, effects. These results highlight the importance of accounting for spatial variation when designing innovation and cohesion policies. The paper calls for tailored, place-based strategies to address regional disparities in innovation-driven development and suggests that current EU policies should be adjusted to better support lagging regions.Book Part Precarious Work and Individual Deprivation During the Post-COVID Era: Lessons From Turkey(Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd., 2025-05-13) Kinikoğlu, C.N.; Karahasan, B.C.Article Are inflation expectations irrational in Turkey? Exchange rate pass-through analysis(Journal of Financial Politic & Economic Reviews, 2023) Asfuroglu, Dila; Ertuğrul, Ayşe; Güneş, Gökhan ŞahinAre inflation expectations irrational in Turkey? Exchange rate pass-through analysisThis study investigates the rationality of inflation expectations in Turkey over 2011-2019 via exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) analysis. Relying on the assumption that the inflation rate and inflation expectations are going to change equally if the economic agents form rational expectations, we utilize the vector autoregression model with inflation expectations to quantify the ERPT to inflation and to inflation expectations. The results show that exchange rate shocks do not have the same impact on the inflation rate and inflation expectations over different horizons. In the short term, the inflation rate rises faster than the inflation expectations following unexpected exchange rate swings; however, they move in tandem after six months. With the time-varying analysis, we trace the evolution of the ERPT coefficients to characterize the nature of agents’ expectations. The findings document that the discrepancy between ERPT coefficients is persistent, inclining to chronic irrationality of expectations, with decaying degrees in the longer horizon, rendering adaptive formation of expectations over time.Article Citation - WoS: 1Unemployment Polarisation and Club Convergence in Türkiye(Wiley, 2025-02-04) Karahasan, Burhan CanTurkish economy has undergone massive transformation during the 2000s. Annual economic growth reached a peak of 10% in the early 2000s. However, the side effects of global financial crises and the internal macroeconomic imbalances shift the growth trajectory of T & uuml;rkiye into a new path of unstable economic growth. While macroeconomic consequences are densely discussed we know less about the adjustment of local labour markets. To fill this gap, we examine the club formation of Turkish regions by analysing their unemployment trajectories during the post 2000s. Our findings show that despite rapid economic growth Turkish regions get extremely polarised and form distinct convergence clubs. Remarkably polarisation is higher for the female population. Geographically, polarisation is in the form of an isolation for the least developed south-eastern regions and some of the developed urbanised western regions. Additionally, our robustness exercises indicate higher polarisation after 2013 as Turkish economic growth starts to become more volatile and less sustainable. Finally, our spatial extensions show that impact of spatial proximity has significant influence on the accurate extent of unemployment deprivation.Article Citation - WoS: 1Populism and Income Inequality: Is Income Inequality in Türkiye a Political Choice?(Istanbul Univ, 2024-12-31) Asfuroğlu, DilaThe argument that national inequalities are political and thereby driven by political decisions implies that income distribution is not merely an economic phenomenon but also a political one. Hence, this study explores the impact of populist governance on income inequality in T & uuml;rkiye. In doing so, this study addresses whether income inequality in T & uuml;rkiye is a political choice, drawing on economic, social, and political data over the years 20082022. According to the results of the quantitative analysis, the share of income for the working class has fallen, the income gap between the lowest and highest deciles of the working class has narrowed, and the potential for fiscal interventions to reduce income inequality is not realised. In return, the income inequality that existed in 2008 has persisted at the same magnitude over the years. In other words, even if income inequality is not an explicit political choice, the populist governance in T & uuml;rkiye between 2008 and 2022 has chosen not to contribute to the solution to this prevailing inequality.Article Borders of socio-economic development in Türkiye(Türkiye Ekonomi Kurumu Vakfı, 2024) Karahasan, Burhan Can; Can, BurhanTurkish economy is characterized by a dual regional structure. Historically, western regions form the relatively more developed and rich geography of the country. In the meantime, landlocked eastern regions are realizing a period of marginalization pushing majority of these regions toward full isolation from rest of the country. Our knowledge on this dual pattern departs mostly from monetary indicators. In this study, I use the socio-economic development index (SDI) which is first constructed by the State Planning Organization (SPO). The main objective is to use spatial tools for the period of 1963-2017 and to explore the historical evolution of spatial externalities and heterogeneity. This aims to visualize the socio-economic borders of Turkish provinces. While our findings confirm the spatial inertia for the under-developed eastern regions, they also show rising spatial spillovers among the developed western geography. However, this positive impact is geographically bounded by the central part of the country.Review The role of pearl’s causal framework in empirical research(Türkiye Ekonomi Kurumu Vakfı, 2024) Bilgel, FıratThis paper underscores the necessity of formulating precise research questions that clarify causal relationships rather than simply identifying correlations and highlights the perils of relying solely on regression analysis in tackling complex causal inquiries without causal diagrams or structural causal models. It introduces Judea Pearl's causal epistemology, including causal graphs, structural causal models, and do-calculus as vital tools for estimating causal effects. It extends to the challenges of confounding and collider effects, the application of do-calculus with basic examples from Law & Economics and the advancements in causal discovery methods through constraint-based algorithms. The paper also offers a brief roadmap on best practices for identification and estimation.Article Citation - WoS: 4Citation - Scopus: 4Institutional Quality and Geography of Discontent in the Eu(John Wiley and Sons Inc, 2023-12-12) Pınar, Mehmet; Karahasan, Burhan CanThere has been a significant rise in anti-establishment votes in the European Union (EU). The decline in socio-economic outcomes and migration played an important role in understanding the rising discontent. However, none of the existing studies analysed the effect of socio-economic factors in different institutional settings. Our findings confirm that institutional quality is of paramount importance in explaining the recent rise in populism in the EU, as institutionally developed EU regions are less opposed to EU integration. Remarkably, the effects of socio-economic factors on populist votes vary in different institutional settings. The findings highlight that institutional improvements are vital for the EU perception of less developed and socio-economically isolated EU regions.