Asfuroğlu, Dila

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https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11779/2757
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Asfuroglu, Dila
Asfuroğlu, Dila
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asfuroglud@mef.edu.tr
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04.01. Department of Economics
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Current Staff
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0000-0003-1650-6711
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56803850400
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AAP-7954-2020
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1728298822-academic-1800003963.avif (7.8 KB)

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PEACE, JUSTICE AND STRONG INSTITUTIONS
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NO POVERTY
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SUSTAINABLE CITIES AND COMMUNITIES
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AFFORDABLE AND CLEAN ENERGY
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REDUCED INEQUALITIES
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INDUSTRY, INNOVATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE
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RESPONSIBLE CONSUMPTION AND PRODUCTION
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GENDER EQUALITY
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DECENT WORK AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
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JournalCount
Current Research in Social Sciences1
Ekonomik ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi1
Istanbul Journal of Economics / İstanbul İktisat Dergisi1
Journal of Financial Politic & Economic Reviews1
Sage Open1
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  • Thumbnail Image
    Article
    Surprise by Anticipated Inflation
    (Sage Publications inc, 2024) Asfuroğlu, Dila
    This paper proposes a theoretical model with two types of households to explore the distributional effects of inflation, assess the non-neutrality of money; and in return, to provide a guideline for policymakers in setting inflation rate. An impatient borrower who faces a borrowing constraint holds a positive amount of debt in equilibrium while a patient lender engages in consumption smoothing. Hence, inflation affects net worth of borrowers via nominal debt by redistributing resources away from lender, rendering welfare gains for the borrower and losses for the lender; and the structure of borrowing constraint gives rise to non-neutrality of anticipated inflation. The utilitarian welfare gain from generating inflation in a cashless economy is amplified when heterogeneous productivity levels are assumed. Yet, incorporating money demand in the form of money-in-utility model suggests that an inflation tax as an additional distortion reverses the overall positive effect of generating inflation in the cashless economy.JEL Classifications: E31, E37, E41, E52, D63. This paper proposes a theoretical model with two types of households to explore the distributional effects of inflation, assess the non-neutrality of money; and in return, to provide a guideline for policy planners in setting inflation rate. Anticipated inflation is shown to affect the net worth of borrowers via nominal debt by redistributing resources away from lender, rendering welfare gains for the borrower and losses for the lender; and the structure of borrowing constraint gives rise to non-neutrality of anticipated inflation. The utilitarian welfare gain from generating inflation in this setting is depicted to rise when heterogeneous productivity levels are assumed. Yet, incorporating money demand into this theoretical environment suggests that an inflation tax as an additional distortion reverses the overall positive effect of generating inflation. The decision by central banks toward using the inflation rate as an instrument to improve utilitarian welfare relies on the presence of money demand motive, the pro-lender/borrower bias, the relationship between intertemporal elasticity of substitutions and the heterogeneous productivity levels among agents. Furthermore, the contribution of this study is that it illustrates the non-neutral effects of the anticipated inflation in a theoretical model as opposed to the unanticipated inflation in the previous literature; and this non-neutrality of inflation is indicated even in the absence of heterogeneity among households contrary to the existing literature.
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    Article
    Türkiye'nin Döngüsel Ekonomiye Geçiş Performansı Üzerine Karşılaştırmalı Bir Analiz
    (2024) Asfuroğlu, Dila
    Çalışma, Türkiye’nin döngüsel ekonomiye geçiş performansını, seçili gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkelerle karşılaştırma yaparak ortaya koymayı amaçlamaktadır. Nicel analiz, Eurostat ve OECD.Stat veri bankalarının döngüsel ekonomiyi ölçmek için belirlediği göstergeler ışığında, verilerin var olduğu 2000-2022 yılları arasında, gelişmiş ülkelerden Almanya, İsveç ve İngiltere; gelişmekte olan ülkelerden Macaristan, Bulgaristan, Arnavutluk ve Sırbistan örnekleriyle yapılmıştır. Sonuçlara göre Türkiye, kaynak verimliliğini yıllar içinde artmış olup en etkili artış, 2017 yılından itibaren gözlemlenmiştir. Yurtiçi malzeme tüketiminin ve malzeme ayak izinin düşük seyretmesi talep ve tüketimin genel anlamda düşük olmasına işaret etmektedir. Kişi başına kentsel atık düşerken kişi başı toplam atığının artması, Türkiye’nin hane bazında atık üretiminin düşük, ancak kişi bazında yüksek olduğunu göstermektedir. Atıkların işlenmesinde en çok başvurulan yol uzun yıllar imha iken 2016 yılından itibaren geri kazanım hız kazanmıştır. Son beş yıla dair verinin bulunduğu kentsel atığın geri dönüşüm oranının artması olumlu bir gelişmedir. İthalat bağımlılığı, gelişmiş ülkelere göre düşük seviyelerde olmasına rağmen yıllar içinde düşmeyip artmıştır. Son yıllarda, tüm hammaddelerin bağımlılığında düşüş yaşanırken metal cevherler ve fosil enerjideki bağımlılık çok yüksek seyretmiştir. Son olarak, sera gazı emisyonu yıllar içinde ciddi şekilde artarak döngüsel ekonomiye geçişte Türkiye’nin en kötü performans göstergesi olmuştur. Yazında çoğunlukla Avrupa Birliği (AB) ülkeleri konu alınıp Türkiye ile alakalı çalışmalar daha çok teorik çerçeveyi oluşturmak üzerine olduğundan bu çalışma, yazındaki eksikliği gidermektedir. Ülke karşılaştırmaları vasıtasıyla, AB’ye aday ülke olan Türkiye’nin, AB’nin döngüsel ekonomi hedeflerinde, döngüsel ekonomi ve ilgili politikaları benimsemede ilerleme kaydedip kaydetmediğini gözler önüne sermekte ve politika yapıcılara, Türkiye’nin döngüsel ekonomi performansını geliştirebilmesi için önerilerde bulunmaktadır.
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    Article
    Central Bank Digital Currency in an Emerging Market Economy: Case of the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye
    (2024) Asfuroğlu, Dila
    Central banks have historically been using traditional channels for communication and physical money for transactions, fulfilling the needs of previous millennia, while the evolution of technology, electronic devices, and needs in transactions necessitate the use of modern communication channels, such as X (formerly known as Twitter), as well as modern payment systems, such as central bank digital currencies (CBDC). Hence, this paper aims to unfold where the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT), as an example of emerging markets, stands in informing the public about CBDC. To this end, it conducts an event study on the official X account of CBRT in English over 10.2020-12.2022 by utilizing Nvivo. The findings of the quantitative analysis of the tweets show that CBRT does not regard X as a primary communication channel and mainly shares links to publications from the official websites in X. Also, CBRT tends to adopt a ‘cold-turkey’ informative approach about CBDC with the public rather than ‘gradualism’. Consequently, CBRT should rigorously design a communication strategy that fulfills the needs of the modern economy and start addressing CBDC to raise awareness if a quick transition to digital currency is targeted.
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    Article
    Are inflation expectations irrational in Turkey? Exchange rate pass-through analysis
    (Journal of Financial Politic & Economic Reviews, 2023) Asfuroglu, Dila; Ertuğrul, Ayşe; Güneş, Gökhan Şahin
    Are inflation expectations irrational in Turkey? Exchange rate pass-through analysisThis study investigates the rationality of inflation expectations in Turkey over 2011-2019 via exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) analysis. Relying on the assumption that the inflation rate and inflation expectations are going to change equally if the economic agents form rational expectations, we utilize the vector autoregression model with inflation expectations to quantify the ERPT to inflation and to inflation expectations. The results show that exchange rate shocks do not have the same impact on the inflation rate and inflation expectations over different horizons. In the short term, the inflation rate rises faster than the inflation expectations following unexpected exchange rate swings; however, they move in tandem after six months. With the time-varying analysis, we trace the evolution of the ERPT coefficients to characterize the nature of agents’ expectations. The findings document that the discrepancy between ERPT coefficients is persistent, inclining to chronic irrationality of expectations, with decaying degrees in the longer horizon, rendering adaptive formation of expectations over time.
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    Article
    Citation - WoS: 1
    Populism and Income Inequality: Is Income Inequality in Türkiye a Political Choice?
    (Istanbul Univ, 2024) Asfuroğlu, Dila
    The argument that national inequalities are political and thereby driven by political decisions implies that income distribution is not merely an economic phenomenon but also a political one. Hence, this study explores the impact of populist governance on income inequality in T & uuml;rkiye. In doing so, this study addresses whether income inequality in T & uuml;rkiye is a political choice, drawing on economic, social, and political data over the years 20082022. According to the results of the quantitative analysis, the share of income for the working class has fallen, the income gap between the lowest and highest deciles of the working class has narrowed, and the potential for fiscal interventions to reduce income inequality is not realised. In return, the income inequality that existed in 2008 has persisted at the same magnitude over the years. In other words, even if income inequality is not an explicit political choice, the populist governance in T & uuml;rkiye between 2008 and 2022 has chosen not to contribute to the solution to this prevailing inequality.