Ekonomi Bölümü Koleksiyonu
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11779/1936
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Review Article Pearl’in Nedensel Modelinin Ampirik Araştırmadaki Rolü(2024) Bılgel, FıratThis paper underscores the necessity of formulating precise research questions that clarify causal relationships rather than simply identifying correlations and highlights the perils of relying solely on regression analysis in tackling complex causal inquiries without causal diagrams or structural causal models. It introduces Judea Pearl's causal epistemology, including causal graphs, structural causal models, and do-calculus as vital tools for estimating causal effects. It extends to the challenges of confounding and collider effects, the application of do-calculus with basic examples from Law & Economics and the advancements in causal discovery methods through constraint-based algorithms. The paper also offers a brief roadmap on best practices for identification and estimation.Article Citation - WoS: 2Citation - Scopus: 4Heterogeneous Impact of Innovation on Economic Development: Evidence from EU Regions(Elsevier Sci Ltd, 2026-03-01) Pinar, Mehmet; Karahasan, Burhan CanThis paper investigates the heterogeneous impact of innovation on economic development across European Union (EU) regions, with a focus on regional competitiveness driven by innovation-based capabilities. While innovation is a key driver of economic growth, its effects are not uniformly distributed. Using the Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression models, the study examines how different dimensions of innovation (technological readiness, business sophistication, and overall innovation capacity) affect regional GDP per capita. The results show that regions with higher innovation-based competitiveness generally achieve higher income levels. However, the impact of innovation is spatially uneven. While core EU regions (particularly, in Northern and Western Europe) benefit more strongly from innovation, peripheral regions (in Southern and Eastern Europe) often experience weaker and in some cases even negative, effects. These results highlight the importance of accounting for spatial variation when designing innovation and cohesion policies. The paper calls for tailored, place-based strategies to address regional disparities in innovation-driven development and suggests that current EU policies should be adjusted to better support lagging regions.Article Are inflation expectations irrational in Turkey? Exchange rate pass-through analysis(Journal of Financial Politic & Economic Reviews, 2023) Asfuroglu, Dila; Ertuğrul, Ayşe; Güneş, Gökhan ŞahinAre inflation expectations irrational in Turkey? Exchange rate pass-through analysisThis study investigates the rationality of inflation expectations in Turkey over 2011-2019 via exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) analysis. Relying on the assumption that the inflation rate and inflation expectations are going to change equally if the economic agents form rational expectations, we utilize the vector autoregression model with inflation expectations to quantify the ERPT to inflation and to inflation expectations. The results show that exchange rate shocks do not have the same impact on the inflation rate and inflation expectations over different horizons. In the short term, the inflation rate rises faster than the inflation expectations following unexpected exchange rate swings; however, they move in tandem after six months. With the time-varying analysis, we trace the evolution of the ERPT coefficients to characterize the nature of agents’ expectations. The findings document that the discrepancy between ERPT coefficients is persistent, inclining to chronic irrationality of expectations, with decaying degrees in the longer horizon, rendering adaptive formation of expectations over time.Article Citation - WoS: 1Unemployment Polarisation and Club Convergence in Türkiye(Wiley, 2025-02-04) Karahasan, Burhan CanTurkish economy has undergone massive transformation during the 2000s. Annual economic growth reached a peak of 10% in the early 2000s. However, the side effects of global financial crises and the internal macroeconomic imbalances shift the growth trajectory of T & uuml;rkiye into a new path of unstable economic growth. While macroeconomic consequences are densely discussed we know less about the adjustment of local labour markets. To fill this gap, we examine the club formation of Turkish regions by analysing their unemployment trajectories during the post 2000s. Our findings show that despite rapid economic growth Turkish regions get extremely polarised and form distinct convergence clubs. Remarkably polarisation is higher for the female population. Geographically, polarisation is in the form of an isolation for the least developed south-eastern regions and some of the developed urbanised western regions. Additionally, our robustness exercises indicate higher polarisation after 2013 as Turkish economic growth starts to become more volatile and less sustainable. Finally, our spatial extensions show that impact of spatial proximity has significant influence on the accurate extent of unemployment deprivation.Article Borders of socio-economic development in Türkiye(Türkiye Ekonomi Kurumu Vakfı, 2024) Karahasan, Burhan Can; Can, BurhanTurkish economy is characterized by a dual regional structure. Historically, western regions form the relatively more developed and rich geography of the country. In the meantime, landlocked eastern regions are realizing a period of marginalization pushing majority of these regions toward full isolation from rest of the country. Our knowledge on this dual pattern departs mostly from monetary indicators. In this study, I use the socio-economic development index (SDI) which is first constructed by the State Planning Organization (SPO). The main objective is to use spatial tools for the period of 1963-2017 and to explore the historical evolution of spatial externalities and heterogeneity. This aims to visualize the socio-economic borders of Turkish provinces. While our findings confirm the spatial inertia for the under-developed eastern regions, they also show rising spatial spillovers among the developed western geography. However, this positive impact is geographically bounded by the central part of the country.Review The role of pearl’s causal framework in empirical research(Türkiye Ekonomi Kurumu Vakfı, 2024) Bilgel, FıratThis paper underscores the necessity of formulating precise research questions that clarify causal relationships rather than simply identifying correlations and highlights the perils of relying solely on regression analysis in tackling complex causal inquiries without causal diagrams or structural causal models. It introduces Judea Pearl's causal epistemology, including causal graphs, structural causal models, and do-calculus as vital tools for estimating causal effects. It extends to the challenges of confounding and collider effects, the application of do-calculus with basic examples from Law & Economics and the advancements in causal discovery methods through constraint-based algorithms. The paper also offers a brief roadmap on best practices for identification and estimation.Article Citation - WoS: 1Citation - Scopus: 1Understanding Covid-19 Mobility Through Human Capital: a Unified Causal Framework(Springer, 2023-02-21) Bilgel, Fırat; Karahasan, Burhan CanThis paper seeks to identify the causal impact of educational human capital on social distancing behavior at workplace in Turkey using district-level data for the period of April 2020 - February 2021. We adopt a unified causal framework, predicated on domain knowledge, theory-justified constraints anda data-driven causal structure discovery using causal graphs. We answer our causal query by employing machine learning prediction algorithms; instrumental variables in the presence of latent confounding and Heckman's model in the presence of selection bias. Results show that educated regions are able to distance-work and educational human capital is a key factor in reducing workplace mobility, possibly through its impact on employment. This pattern leads to higher workplace mobility for less educated regions and translates into higher Covid-19 infection rates. The future of the pandemic lies in less educated segments of developing countries and calls for public health action to decrease its unequal and pervasive impact.Article Citation - WoS: 2Citation - Scopus: 2Effects of Covid-19 Lockdowns on Social Distancing in Turkey(Oxford University Press, 2022-05-23) Bilgel, FıratThis paper elucidates the causal effect of lockdowns on social distancing behaviour in Turkey by adopting an augmented synthetic control and a factor-augmented model approach for imputing counterfactuals. By constructing a synthetic control group that reproduces pre-lockdown trajectory of mobility of the treated provinces and that accommodates staggered adoption, the difference between the counterfactual and actual mobility of treated provinces is assessed in the post-lockdown period. The analysis shows that in the short run following the onset of lockdowns, outdoor mobility would have been about 17–53 percentage points higher on average in the absence of lockdowns, depending on social distancing measure. However, residential mobility would have been about 12 percentage points lower in the absence of lockdowns. The findings are corroborated using interactive fixed effects and matrix completion counterfactuals that accommodate staggered adoption and treatment reversals.Article Classifying the European Football Leagues by Using Balance-Performance Matrix(Pamukkale University, 2021) Özaydın, Selçuk Mustafa; Özaydin, Mustafa SelçukEuropean football has transformed over the last two decades both financially and athletically. Although the aggregate revenue generated by the European football increases, some leagues grew richer than the others. The inequality in the distribution of revenue caused the talents to accumulate in the Big 5 leagues and left the others with no chance to compete. Especially after the introduction of Financial Fair Play, teams from other leagues became in desperate need of transfer income which accelerated the accumulation of talent. This paper proposes a matrix, the Balance-Performance Matrix, for classifying leagues with respect to their transfer balance and sportive performance. As the results of the matrix illustrate, some leagues indeed became suppliers for the Big 5 and they have lost their competitive edge whereas some are still competing despite losing their best talents.Article Citation - Scopus: 3The Impact of Slavia Praha’s Takeover on Czech Football(Masaryk University, 2021-06-09) Özaydın, SelçukForeign ownership in European football has been rapidly increasing especially in the last two decades. Although the main interest for the foreign investors are the teams of major leagues such as English Premier League, Spanish La Liga or Italian Serie A, there are some occasional surprises. One of the surprises is the oldest football team in Czech football, SK Slavia Praha This study investigates the impact of Slavia’s takeover on Czech First Division. First, a stochastic frontier analysis is conducted and efficiency scores are estimated. The results indicate that Slavia’s athletic efficiency has improved significantly after the takeover. Later, the transfer activity in the league is investigated and concluded that it has increased greatly thanks to Slavia’s additional funds allocated to transfers. Finally, the overall competitive balance in the league improved after the takeover despite Slavia’s dominance in the league after the takeover. © 2021 Masaryk University. All rights reserved.