Ekonomi Bölümü Koleksiyonu
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11779/1936
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Article Are inflation expectations irrational in Turkey? Exchange rate pass-through analysis(Journal of Financial Politic & Economic Reviews, 2023) Asfuroglu, Dila; Ertuğrul, Ayşe; Güneş, Gökhan ŞahinAre inflation expectations irrational in Turkey? Exchange rate pass-through analysisThis study investigates the rationality of inflation expectations in Turkey over 2011-2019 via exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) analysis. Relying on the assumption that the inflation rate and inflation expectations are going to change equally if the economic agents form rational expectations, we utilize the vector autoregression model with inflation expectations to quantify the ERPT to inflation and to inflation expectations. The results show that exchange rate shocks do not have the same impact on the inflation rate and inflation expectations over different horizons. In the short term, the inflation rate rises faster than the inflation expectations following unexpected exchange rate swings; however, they move in tandem after six months. With the time-varying analysis, we trace the evolution of the ERPT coefficients to characterize the nature of agents’ expectations. The findings document that the discrepancy between ERPT coefficients is persistent, inclining to chronic irrationality of expectations, with decaying degrees in the longer horizon, rendering adaptive formation of expectations over time.Article Citation - WoS: 1Unemployment Polarisation and Club Convergence in Türkiye(Wiley, 2025-02-04) Karahasan, Burhan CanTurkish economy has undergone massive transformation during the 2000s. Annual economic growth reached a peak of 10% in the early 2000s. However, the side effects of global financial crises and the internal macroeconomic imbalances shift the growth trajectory of T & uuml;rkiye into a new path of unstable economic growth. While macroeconomic consequences are densely discussed we know less about the adjustment of local labour markets. To fill this gap, we examine the club formation of Turkish regions by analysing their unemployment trajectories during the post 2000s. Our findings show that despite rapid economic growth Turkish regions get extremely polarised and form distinct convergence clubs. Remarkably polarisation is higher for the female population. Geographically, polarisation is in the form of an isolation for the least developed south-eastern regions and some of the developed urbanised western regions. Additionally, our robustness exercises indicate higher polarisation after 2013 as Turkish economic growth starts to become more volatile and less sustainable. Finally, our spatial extensions show that impact of spatial proximity has significant influence on the accurate extent of unemployment deprivation.Article Borders of socio-economic development in Türkiye(Türkiye Ekonomi Kurumu Vakfı, 2024) Karahasan, Burhan Can; Can, BurhanTurkish economy is characterized by a dual regional structure. Historically, western regions form the relatively more developed and rich geography of the country. In the meantime, landlocked eastern regions are realizing a period of marginalization pushing majority of these regions toward full isolation from rest of the country. Our knowledge on this dual pattern departs mostly from monetary indicators. In this study, I use the socio-economic development index (SDI) which is first constructed by the State Planning Organization (SPO). The main objective is to use spatial tools for the period of 1963-2017 and to explore the historical evolution of spatial externalities and heterogeneity. This aims to visualize the socio-economic borders of Turkish provinces. While our findings confirm the spatial inertia for the under-developed eastern regions, they also show rising spatial spillovers among the developed western geography. However, this positive impact is geographically bounded by the central part of the country.Review The role of pearl’s causal framework in empirical research(Türkiye Ekonomi Kurumu Vakfı, 2024) Bilgel, FıratThis paper underscores the necessity of formulating precise research questions that clarify causal relationships rather than simply identifying correlations and highlights the perils of relying solely on regression analysis in tackling complex causal inquiries without causal diagrams or structural causal models. It introduces Judea Pearl's causal epistemology, including causal graphs, structural causal models, and do-calculus as vital tools for estimating causal effects. It extends to the challenges of confounding and collider effects, the application of do-calculus with basic examples from Law & Economics and the advancements in causal discovery methods through constraint-based algorithms. The paper also offers a brief roadmap on best practices for identification and estimation.Article Türkiye'nin Döngüsel Ekonomiye Geçiş Performansı Üzerine Karşılaştırmalı Bir Analiz(2024) Asfuroğlu, Dila; Asfuroglu, DilaÇalışma, Türkiye’nin döngüsel ekonomiye geçiş performansını, seçili gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkelerle karşılaştırma yaparak ortaya koymayı amaçlamaktadır. Nicel analiz, Eurostat ve OECD.Stat veri bankalarının döngüsel ekonomiyi ölçmek için belirlediği göstergeler ışığında, verilerin var olduğu 2000-2022 yılları arasında, gelişmiş ülkelerden Almanya, İsveç ve İngiltere; gelişmekte olan ülkelerden Macaristan, Bulgaristan, Arnavutluk ve Sırbistan örnekleriyle yapılmıştır. Sonuçlara göre Türkiye, kaynak verimliliğini yıllar içinde artmış olup en etkili artış, 2017 yılından itibaren gözlemlenmiştir. Yurtiçi malzeme tüketiminin ve malzeme ayak izinin düşük seyretmesi talep ve tüketimin genel anlamda düşük olmasına işaret etmektedir. Kişi başına kentsel atık düşerken kişi başı toplam atığının artması, Türkiye’nin hane bazında atık üretiminin düşük, ancak kişi bazında yüksek olduğunu göstermektedir. Atıkların işlenmesinde en çok başvurulan yol uzun yıllar imha iken 2016 yılından itibaren geri kazanım hız kazanmıştır. Son beş yıla dair verinin bulunduğu kentsel atığın geri dönüşüm oranının artması olumlu bir gelişmedir. İthalat bağımlılığı, gelişmiş ülkelere göre düşük seviyelerde olmasına rağmen yıllar içinde düşmeyip artmıştır. Son yıllarda, tüm hammaddelerin bağımlılığında düşüş yaşanırken metal cevherler ve fosil enerjideki bağımlılık çok yüksek seyretmiştir. Son olarak, sera gazı emisyonu yıllar içinde ciddi şekilde artarak döngüsel ekonomiye geçişte Türkiye’nin en kötü performans göstergesi olmuştur. Yazında çoğunlukla Avrupa Birliği (AB) ülkeleri konu alınıp Türkiye ile alakalı çalışmalar daha çok teorik çerçeveyi oluşturmak üzerine olduğundan bu çalışma, yazındaki eksikliği gidermektedir. Ülke karşılaştırmaları vasıtasıyla, AB’ye aday ülke olan Türkiye’nin, AB’nin döngüsel ekonomi hedeflerinde, döngüsel ekonomi ve ilgili politikaları benimsemede ilerleme kaydedip kaydetmediğini gözler önüne sermekte ve politika yapıcılara, Türkiye’nin döngüsel ekonomi performansını geliştirebilmesi için önerilerde bulunmaktadır.Article Citation - WoS: 1Citation - Scopus: 1Understanding Covid-19 Mobility Through Human Capital: a Unified Causal Framework(Springer, 2023-02-21) Bilgel, Fırat; Karahasan, Burhan CanThis paper seeks to identify the causal impact of educational human capital on social distancing behavior at workplace in Turkey using district-level data for the period of April 2020 - February 2021. We adopt a unified causal framework, predicated on domain knowledge, theory-justified constraints anda data-driven causal structure discovery using causal graphs. We answer our causal query by employing machine learning prediction algorithms; instrumental variables in the presence of latent confounding and Heckman's model in the presence of selection bias. Results show that educated regions are able to distance-work and educational human capital is a key factor in reducing workplace mobility, possibly through its impact on employment. This pattern leads to higher workplace mobility for less educated regions and translates into higher Covid-19 infection rates. The future of the pandemic lies in less educated segments of developing countries and calls for public health action to decrease its unequal and pervasive impact.Article Citation - WoS: 2Citation - Scopus: 2Effects of Covid-19 Lockdowns on Social Distancing in Turkey(Oxford University Press, 2022-05-23) Bilgel, FıratThis paper elucidates the causal effect of lockdowns on social distancing behaviour in Turkey by adopting an augmented synthetic control and a factor-augmented model approach for imputing counterfactuals. By constructing a synthetic control group that reproduces pre-lockdown trajectory of mobility of the treated provinces and that accommodates staggered adoption, the difference between the counterfactual and actual mobility of treated provinces is assessed in the post-lockdown period. The analysis shows that in the short run following the onset of lockdowns, outdoor mobility would have been about 17–53 percentage points higher on average in the absence of lockdowns, depending on social distancing measure. However, residential mobility would have been about 12 percentage points lower in the absence of lockdowns. The findings are corroborated using interactive fixed effects and matrix completion counterfactuals that accommodate staggered adoption and treatment reversals.Article Classifying the European Football Leagues by Using Balance-Performance Matrix(Pamukkale University, 2021) Özaydın, Selçuk Mustafa; Özaydin, Mustafa SelçukEuropean football has transformed over the last two decades both financially and athletically. Although the aggregate revenue generated by the European football increases, some leagues grew richer than the others. The inequality in the distribution of revenue caused the talents to accumulate in the Big 5 leagues and left the others with no chance to compete. Especially after the introduction of Financial Fair Play, teams from other leagues became in desperate need of transfer income which accelerated the accumulation of talent. This paper proposes a matrix, the Balance-Performance Matrix, for classifying leagues with respect to their transfer balance and sportive performance. As the results of the matrix illustrate, some leagues indeed became suppliers for the Big 5 and they have lost their competitive edge whereas some are still competing despite losing their best talents.Article Citation - Scopus: 3The Impact of Slavia Praha’s Takeover on Czech Football(Masaryk University, 2021-06-09) Özaydın, SelçukForeign ownership in European football has been rapidly increasing especially in the last two decades. Although the main interest for the foreign investors are the teams of major leagues such as English Premier League, Spanish La Liga or Italian Serie A, there are some occasional surprises. One of the surprises is the oldest football team in Czech football, SK Slavia Praha This study investigates the impact of Slavia’s takeover on Czech First Division. First, a stochastic frontier analysis is conducted and efficiency scores are estimated. The results indicate that Slavia’s athletic efficiency has improved significantly after the takeover. Later, the transfer activity in the league is investigated and concluded that it has increased greatly thanks to Slavia’s additional funds allocated to transfers. Finally, the overall competitive balance in the league improved after the takeover despite Slavia’s dominance in the league after the takeover. © 2021 Masaryk University. All rights reserved.Article Citation - WoS: 1Citation - Scopus: 1Great Recession and News Shocks: Evidence Based on an Estimated Dsge Model(Springer, 2021-05-21) Nebioğlu, DenizThis paper examines whether productivity news shocks were among the drivers of the Great Recession. To do this, the Smets and Wouters (Am Econ Rev 97(3):586–606, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.97.3.586) model is extended by a generalized preference specification which allows for scaling wealth effects on the labor supply. The resulting model is estimated using Bayesian methods which draw upon the US data from the period 1965Q2 to 2014Q3. There are four main results: (i) Estimation of the model is inconclusive regarding the degree of wealth elasticity of the labor supply. As a result, two complementary versions of the model prevail, each of which has differing implications for the transmission and the quantitative importance of exogenous shocks. (ii) When the degree of wealth elasticity of the labor supply is low, news shocks replace risk premium shocks, suggesting that news shocks are one possible reason for fluctuations in US business cycles. (iii) When the Great Recession period is analyzed through the lenses of the two complementary versions of the model, two explanations emerge as potential reasons behind the deepening of the crisis: worsening credit conditions as well as the collapse of over-optimistic expectations regarding future productivity. (iv) For both model specifications, general developments in productivity are estimated to be positive. Therefore, productivity slowdown is not considered to be among the reasons for the emergence or persistence of the Great Recession.